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My September-13 Strategy

In September I am interested in following commodities:

Natural Gas - seasonal trends show that NG bottoms in the end of August ( which we already seen around 10th of August) and appreciates during September. I opened my longs immediately after bearish storage report last Thursday of August. However I am mildly bullish as temperatures are not supportive I bet on seasonal trend alone.

Cocoa - September is the month when harvest starts in Africa. I will be shorting CC in September.

Soybeans - seasonal trends show bearish trend in September. Weather is not bad either. We had mad bullish run in August and it is due for a correction. These 3 arguments make me bearish. However there are talks of poorer yields so let us not be too arrogant.

Crude Oil - I do not believe that WTI will hold at near 110 levels. I am shorting oil. I bet on peaceful resolution and Obama's wisdom. He is between a hammer and anvil now - absence of solid evidence against Assad (otherwise it would be made public long ago) on one hand and image of USA as a World watchdog on the other do not let him make his mind. The worst is that supporting anyone in Syria is a bad choice - the choice is between dictator and zealots, a lose-lose situation. I guess that political yells will last for a bit and after they will focus on something else - debt ceiling, North Korea, Snowden etc. Apologies for cynicism.

I have a few non-directional trades in mind too - I sold strangles on coffee and intend to sell strangles on gasoline and/or heating oil as premiums are very juicy. I am thinking of selling strangles on grains too but I am not quite sure in wheat/corn non-directional price behavior.

September may bring a few big surprises - tapering welfare aid for banks QE and war in Syria may roil all markets, weather developments may affect grains, hurricanes may add to energy and juice. Lot's of things to watch this month.