Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

My September-13 Strategy Review

Oct. 01, 2013 11:08 PM ET
Elgrey profile picture
Elgrey's Blog
13 Followers
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

OK, September is over so let's review where we are:

Natural Gas - I was betting on price appreciation but I added a cautious note saying that appreciation won't be long-living. So it happened. I quit my longs a day before month maximum and saved profit. This decision was purely based on historical price behavior and technical weakening of NG.

Cocoa - I was waiting till last decade of the month cause that's when prices for cocoa usually hit the top during many years. Position is suffering a small loss now but I am not worried cause it is too early to make conclusions and I never expected to catch the very peak. According to COT report, the users of CC have accumulated a record short position (meaning that they know something bad others do not know yet) and funds are very long now (one should expect them to start fixing profits). I have March contracts so I guess I can afford some waiting. On the side note I see comments telling scary stories about shortages of cocoa and if memory serves that usually happens about the time when market is going to attract last fools and drop. In my opinion we are in a situation when any shortages (if any) are way too much outpaced by speculative buying.

Soybeans - we started month just at USD14 per bushel and ended it below 13. Another seasonal trend proved right.

Crude Oil - the war did not happen. Obama did not want it, his people did not want it, allies could not offer more than verbal support, who exactly used the gas was not proven. Obama played it smart and Russians helped him. So they won. Who lost - French president looked like a fool cause he made purely emotional decision and Secretary Kerry who started his race for presidency with a false start. Back to oil - November contract opened September at 108+ and closed at 102. I quit my shorts at 102.50 as I notice support at these levels. It may possibly be that war premium is no longer in place. At the same time, from Fibonacci waves theory standpoint this could be a corrective wave A to be followed by a hike, wave B, and further drop - wave C, the last one in the cycle of 8 waves. But I am not an expert in this theory so prefer to quit and observe non-technical developments.

Apart from the above I was selling strangles but they were more technical trades so I will not talk about them.

All in all this month was a good one. Let's turn the page.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You