This one will be brief. In November I am interested in following commodities:
Natural Gas - I am short NG as of today. My profit target has been reached but I will wait a bit further till bears grow weary. This may happen next week or next month. We are at the verge of important technical development - from this point either a strong 3rd Fibo wave of bearish cycle develops "down" or inverse head and shoulders pattern be developing final leg up. I expect a strong development. Some may say "OK, good advice - either up or down, another typical market analyst". Well, what I do not expect is that price holds still - that's for sure. And I am more bearish than bullish otherwise I would not be holding a short position. What I'm saying is that we are at crossroads and about to witness important developments so stay alert.
Cocoa - I am bear here. Finally COT shows funds retreat and prices are $100+ off their highs. Fundamentally speaking cocoa processors have replenished stocks for Christmas and next buying wave should not be here until possibly late December - early January when preparation for Valentine day can spark buyers' interest.
Lean Hogs - I am holding shorts here too. Last live slaughter report tells us that there less animals "processed" by slaughter houses pointing at weaker demand. COT shows bearish developments too. Last Hogs and Pigs report was bearish too but markets seemed to overlook that fact. Possibly, the rally was caused by speculators in absence of news from markets due to US shutdown. However technical picture is not 100% bearish - it looks like 5-wave Fibo cycle is over now but we still need to see more confirmations. If, say, LH loses another 2% during next week then I would be convinced that we are in a strong bearish trend.
This is my plan for November. I do not understand which way oil is heading so I prefer to play hedged non-directional game rather than go naked for petroleum group. Corn is very lucrative but I want to see USDA WASDE numbers first. Today we only have crop condition and weekly sales reports and they do not give any comfort. For grains I play hedged non-directional game with options too.
Whatever trash Democrats and Republicans signed in Washington there is some 6 weeks deadline and 2 weeks passed already. No news is normal for politicians. Somewhere along the way during week 5 or 6 they will realize that they ought to do something and then we will witness a brief moment of "hard work", "being almost there" and other clichés. End of the month will be fun. We are yet to see what it will mean to commodities.