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Elgrey
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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My January-14 Strategy Review 0 comments
    Feb 2, 2014 10:47 PM

    OK, let's review January performance:

    Wheat was a loser in January as predicted.

    Calling shorts for rice and oats was a wrong move but remember I said I did not want to play with them. So I did not and this false call did not affect me. In fact I dislike rice and oats markets - they are too small and too unpredictable.

    Cattle rallied in January so my hesitations were not correct. At the same time hogs were very stable during January and historical pattern did not happen as I anticipated. I currently have short strangle position in hogs and hoping for further price stability.

    Copper lost alot in January. I warned not to buy it.

    Palladium - seasonal pattern held true this year - buy palladium during last days of December and sell at the end of January or early February. This year rally started around Christmas and finished around 20th of January. This was a nice bet.

    Cocoa - I called shorts long time ago and market was bullish no matter what. I closed my short position during first days of January when prices slumped. It was luck cause that drop did not last long.

    Generally, the first month of the year is known for its optimism. Also, it is the month when funds rebalance their portfolios so plenty of strong moves were around. I finished this month on positive note but there is not too much to brag. OK, moving into February!

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