Elgrey's  Instablog

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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My March-14 Strategy Review 0 comments
    Apr 2, 2014 10:57 PM

    Time to review March predictions.

    Cocoa - as predicted it stuck in a range. My options strangle expires tomorrow and I am glad to collect premium in full. Furthermore I will wait for grind reports in the middle of April and re-evaluate situation.

    Cotton - cotton showed a bit of advance but generally speaking it is in the same shoes as cocoa. So I was correct here too.

    Soybeans - soybeans did not fall, unfortunately. However I still believe that price softening is only a matter of time and patience.

    Gasoline was at around 2.90 levels during the months. Actually I expected it to be a bit higher but RBOB is tightly linked with WTI and there was not much growth potential for WTI in March.

    Coffee - my bet to short coffee was correct. Prices pulled back by nearly 15% from maximums.

    Natural Gas - well… I was right but I am not pleased here. I have my shorts but I continue to hesitate. Last couple of weeks rig count fell drastically, there are new export licenses issued plus you have unrest in Ukraine. It is too far to affect prices in the US but my senses keep telling me that NG market status quo is about to change.

    It was rather calm month for me in terms of trading. As I gain new investment experience with every trade, my approach to investing also changes. I notice that I move away from trading futures to writing options. This is way safer and less time-consuming business that lets you sleep at night and make money. Lately, I read a beautiful book on options selling called The Complete Guide To Options Selling by James Cordier & Michael Gross and I highly recommend it to everyone involved in commodity investment and speculation. This book together with Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers and Secrets of the COT Report by Larry Williams must be a part of Investment Hall of Fame if one will exist one day.

    Alright, March is over, moving into April.

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