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Elgrey
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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My June, July-14 Strategy 0 comments
    Jun 13, 2014 12:03 AM

    Summer is here with us. Warm beer, sweaty girls... You know, summer))) OK, plans for rest of June and July.

    Soybeans - short, short, short. Re-established shorts right after WASDE. The price is way too high, crops are abundant, weather is fine.

    Soy oil - continue shorting as seasonals and fundamentals are bearish.

    Cotton - shorting here too! I need to justify my logo after all! But seriously speaking, reasons are the same as with soy - seasonal trend, abundant stocks, good crop condition.

    Cocoa - I had strangle position meaning that I was shorting calls and puts simultaneously. This means I would benefit if the price would be below call strike and above put strike. I closed put leg when prices rallied to 33 months highs and put became very cheap but still long way before expiring. So now with just short calls left in portfolio, I am effectively short cocoa and I continue shorting this market because no matter recent price rally I do not believe it is real - fundamentals are slightly bearish - very good main and mid crops in Africa overweight fears of deficit. You know, deficit is still at "maybe" status but good crops are facts. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. And a few hours ago prices declined strongly, and I think this is only the beginning.

    Coffee - as long as harvesting is on its way in Brazil I am shorting coffee market.

    Natural gas - inventories are being re-built, El Nino promises a mild summer - I am bear and I plan to remain such until August unless something bad happens.

    Heating Oil - I closed my bearish position the first day markets reacted to tensions in Iraq and saved most of my profit. I had plans to wait until prices drop to close my bearish stance and build bullish position for next few months but markets are unpredictable and they rallied without bottoming. Therefore I will wait. Current rally is not a long-term one, it may crack any moment as it is driven by politics not supply and demand. If you like to ride crazy waves - it is up to you but I prefer to make money with cold head and without nerves and hassle. So I am waiting.

    Corn - coming weeks will be very important as corn pollination begins. I do not expect big surprises here but I better wait before building bearish position. Also, I want to see a technical bump before doing so.

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