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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My June-14 Strategy Review 0 comments
    Jul 1, 2014 9:23 PM

    A quick review of June:

    Soybeans - finally market cracked but the story is far from over.

    Soy oil - we had a brief rally before Ramadan began and now market is in sell mode again.

    Cotton - this market melted like snow in June. I quit my position to book the profit and looking for a bump to jump-in again.

    Coffee - bear's party is not finished yet. Stay short. At this moment they gather beans from frost-damaged plants first and there are no bullish news. So the picture should be even more bearish once they get to healthy coffee plants.

    Cocoa - this market did not go down so I was wrong. At the same time I did not lose - my short calls were still out-of-the-money and I bought them back at discount and closed position with minimal profit. See how options allow you to earn even if you are wrong. Fantastic game. Now, back to the point - cocoa is no longer short as Ivory Coast and Ghana receive too much rain. This can be a trouble for coming autumn crops. Also, another reason why I quit position is upcoming cocoa grind reports from US, EU, and Asia.

    Natural Gas - this baby was down in June but I am a bit worried if this move is sustainable.

    Gasoline - I did not mention it in previous post because I did not have a position at that time. I am short gasoline from 20th of June or so. I was thinking about shorting gasoline but I was not sure (a) when, and (b) why. Technically speaking the market went too overbought without strong fundamental reasons - every week petroleum report shows inflows despite it is a high season for gasoline. The market was fueled by worries about Iraq crisis but this (for now) did not prove to be anything of long-term nature. So, on the day when Iraqi rebels captured one of the biggest oil plants in Iraq and the market did not react any more I made my move, bulls tired up.

    Corn - I am a long-term bear here but I have no position yet as I am still wasting time looking for an entry point.

    Heating Oil - waiting for another 10 cents drop to open a bullish position.

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