Elgrey's  Instablog

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Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My July-14 Strategy Review 0 comments
    Aug 5, 2014 1:39 AM

    OK, it is time to review my forecasts for June and July.

    Soybeans - my plan to short beans brought me good profits. Closed position on 1 of August as options I sold earlier lost most the value and keeping position open was meaningless and I bought them back. I still have bear spirit inside me but I want to see WASDE, it is only a few days away.

    Soy oil - prices declined as expected.

    Cotton - same story as above.

    Cocoa - here I am kind of busted for now. Instead of expected decline cocoa added another USD100 to USD3,200. I keep my shorts open and I believe market lost touch with the reality. In brief - we can see news about rising US and Asia grinding numbers but EU grinding numbers declined much stronger and if you add up all grinding numbers for EU, US, and Asia you will see that there is a quarter-on-quarter decline in grind numbers. So demand is not that "out of control" as some like to say. Also, weather news and crop reports from Africa point at good crop numbers and good prospects.

    Coffee - I made good money shorting coffee but last days of July brought me some headache with unexpected price jumps. I still believe that coffee prices should not exceed USD2.00 in a medium term and I do not think market is right when they go wrecklessly bullish simply because some analyst and an export company issued bullish estimates in generally neutral-bearish environment.

    Natural gas - prices dropped as expected. Summer is bad time for bulls, especially mild summer.

    Heating Oil - I opened bullish position in November contract a couple of cents ago. Maybe I was wrong, time will tell.

    Gasoline - still shorting it.

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