Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

My December-15 Strategy Review

Jan. 05, 2016 12:23 AM ET
Elgrey profile picture
Elgrey's Blog
13 Followers
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Time to review December.

Natural Gas - I burned my fingers here. I was shorting it longer than I should and I lost some money. Well... Can't win all the time.

Coffee - I was shorting it until I saw signs of technical bottom and I quit it. I did not initiate longs because I cannot see long-term bullish fundamentals yet. In fact I am long-term bear unless we see new developments - robusta crops are very good in Vietnam for two years, arabica crops are slightly less than production but plentyful carryover stocks haven't been depleted, new crops get good moist. So unless we see shortage of rains in Brasil I remain bearish.

Grains - I waited for beans to form a local top and opened shorts. I closed them around Christmas. That was prematurely but market started to show a degree of uncertainty about price direction and I chose not to tease my luck. Waiting for next WASDE and more news.

Cotton - same as with beans I decided not to carry this position into 2016 and closed it around Xmas. This asset is unstable and not easy to predict so no regrets about missing further part of bears rally.

Oil - I was shorting it until charts told me to stop. It recovered a bit and I opened my shorts again after last inventory report in 2015 shown another build. Generally speaking I think that bearish trend is still with us - US removed barriers for its oil to be exported and this should increase World supply of oil even further. Some say oil will drop below USD30. We shall see.

Hogs - I was hesitating for too long and did not open longs. I was disapointed with latest Hogs and Pigs report showing record production and strong supply. THis is not a bullish sign. Also, technical picture does not tell 'go long', in fact I expect some pullback in prices and opened shorts instead. We shall see.

2015 is over and important part is to review the performance for this year. It was not great at all. Although majority of my calls were correct I made a few errors that took away most of my earnings. I did not calculate yet but a rough estimate says I made not more than 10% this year. Here is the list of mistakes I made:

- I married some positions
- I broke exposure limits
- I overextended holding when it was time to quit
- I went against the tide

These are common mistakes every trader makes. Too bad for me I made them all. Probably rich 2014 made me less careful. Well, 2015 is behind, goodbye and good riddance. Fight goes on in 2016.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You