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USD/CHF Break And Retest Scenario (April 8, 2013)

The disappointing March NFP from the U.S. triggered a sharp selloff for USD/CHF, taking the pair below the .9400 significant support level and bottom of the previous range.

It seems that a retest of the support-turned-resistance level could be in play for today or the next few days this week after the pair found support close to the .9300 handle. The .9400 major psychological level is in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hou time frame.

Stochastic is moving up from the oversold region with a slight bullish divergence in play. This suggests that the pair could recover from its recent losses at least until another round of major reports are released.

Switzerland will be printing its CPI and retail sales data within the week. Inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% in March while consumer spending could post a 2.9% increase, much higher than the previous 1.9% rise. Take note that the FOMC minutes are also set for release this week and this could reaffirm the Fed's bias against withdrawing stimulus.

Shorting at .9400 with a stop above the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels and a target of new lows would be a good weekly trade.