USD/JPY has been stalling around the 99.50 minor psychological area for the past few days already, suggesting that yen bears may be running out of steam. After all, the pair has climbed by more than 600 pips over the past two trading weeks, which means that a correction could be in the cards.
The U.S. retail sales report due in today's New York session could be the perfect catalyst for a pullback as the figures could come in weaker than expected, following the dismal NFP figures for the same month. March headline retail sales are expected to show a flat reading while the core version of the report is projected to post a 0.1% decline.
If USD/JPY sells off, it could quickly recover upon reaching the Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly those around the 96.50 to 97.00 former resistance area.
Right now, stochastic is still moving out of the overbought region, hinting at a move down south. Wait for the oscillator to reach the oversold zone and turn upwards before jumping in a long trade if you're a cautious trader.