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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 6, 2013)


The U.S. dollar initially had a positive reaction to stronger than expected NFP data but was soon weighed down when risk appetite boosted the higher-yielding currencies. The NFP figure came in at 165K, higher than the estimated 146K reading, while the previous figure was revised up from 88K to 138K. This pushed the jobless rate down from 7.6% to just 7.5% for April. For today, there are no major reports from the U.S. as the dollar could continue to lose ground on improved risk sentiment.


Although the ECB cut rates last week, EUR/USD still manages to keep its head above the 1.3000 major psychological level. Negative interest rates are currently the talk of the town and ECB President Draghi's speech later today could set the record straight on what the central bank plans to do next in order to stimulate the euro zone economy. The improvement in risk appetite may have lifted the euro last Friday but the fact remains that the EU just downgraded their growth forecasts for the region.


Cable is having a tough time making any headway above the 1.5600 major psychological level as traders could start pricing in their expectations for this week's BOE interest rate decision. No monetary policy changes are expected since the U.K. has actually posted some economic improvements in some sectors lately. British banks are on a holiday today, which suggests tight trading conditions for pound pairs.


Japanese banks are on a holiday today, which means that liquidity is low for yen pairs. The yen has been on a losing streak, thanks to the risk on market environment and it seems that the lower-yielding currency is poised for more losses if risk appetite keeps up.


The Swissy had quite a topsy turvy run on Friday as it lost ground to the U.S. dollar right after the NFP release then recovered its losses when risk appetite surged later on. From there, USD/CHF consolidated around the .9350 area for the rest of the day. With no reports due from Switzerland today and with Japanese and British banks on a holiday, Swiss pairs could continue to move sideways for the rest of the trading day.

Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies were able to benefit from the rebound in risk last Friday, as strong U.S. jobs data renewed demand for higher-yielding currencies. This week, it remains to be seen whether these currencies could hold on to their gains and go for more since there are a bunch of red flags on their schedules. The Ivey PMI is set for release tonight while the RBA will make its interest rate decision in tomorrow's Asian session. New Zealand quarterly jobs data is due later on this week.