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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 7, 2013)


The U.S. dollar bounced back on its feet in yesterday's trading when risk aversion popped its head back in the markets. There were no major reports released from the U.S. but the new set of economic problems from a few major economies kept risk taking in check. Disappointing Chinese and Australian data, as well as Draghi's remarks stating that the ECB was open to further easing, discouraged traders from parking their money in higher-yielding currencies. For today, there are no major reports due from the U.S. so the dollar could continue to trade on risk sentiment.


The euro started the week on a poor note as the shared currency slid back down against the U.S. dollar. As it turns out, ECB President Draghi said that the central bank is still considering further stimulus if necessary. This revived talks of negative interest rates since the ECB just slashed its benchmark rate to 0.50% last week. Only a few medium-tier reports are set for release from the euro zone today, starting with the French industrial production data and Germany factory orders. Weak data could continue to weigh on the euro for the rest of the trading day.


GBP/USD continues to tread carefully below the 1.5600 major psychological resistance level as though awaiting further economic clues. Unfortunately, there are no new pieces of data due from the U.K. in today's trading sessions, which suggest that GBP/USD could continue to move sideways. Be mindful of potential changes in risk sentiment though as dollar pairs have been selling off during risk-off market environments.


Switzerland's SECO consumer climate figure came in worse than expected as the reading landed at -5. Economists had expected a larger improvement from -6 to -3 for the past three months. However, the Swiss franc barely reacted to this report, probably because the unemployment rate held steady at 3.1%. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the day, which suggests that USD/CHF could either move sideways or be sensitive to market sentiment.


The Japanese yen regained a bit of ground against its major counterparts in yesterday's trading as the lower-yielding currency trumped the higher-yielding ones in a risk-off market day. There are no major reports due from Japan for the rest of the day, which suggests further risk flows from the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The RBA just cut their interest rates by 0.25% in today's Asian session, pushing AUD/USD below the 1.0200 major psychological support level. This rate cut came as a surprise since Australian data hasn't been as bad as those of other major economies. There are no reports due from Canada but New Zealand is set to print its RBNZ financial stability report in the late U.S. session.