Seeking Alpha

Dana Blankenhorn's  Instablog

Dana Blankenhorn
Send Message
Dana Blankenhorn http://www.danablankenhorn.com has been a business journalist since 1978, and a futurist all his life.He warned about the coming Houston oil collapse in 1979. He began making a living on the Internet in 1985. He launched the first e-commerce daily for CMP in 1994, warned of the... More
My company:
Dana Blankenhorn
My blog:
Dana Blankenhorn and the War Against Oil
My book:
Moore's Lore: Better and Better, Faster and Faster
  • The Phony Fiscal Cliff 8 comments
    Dec 5, 2012 10:34 AM

    For the last few weeks CNBC has become "Comedy Central," with all guests expected to harrumph and act troubled about the so-called "fiscal cliff."

    They've been talking the market down when there is no way for the market to go but up. We still have a natural gas glut, we're on track to lead the world in oil production a few years from now, and costs for both solar and biofuels continue to decline. With inflation in check and housing starting to pick up, with car sales rising and Christmas looking like a winner, and new technologies abounding everywhere, why not buy?

    Buy American stocks. Buy the QQQ, buy the DIS, buy the SPY. Buy.

    As I've written before, the "fiscal cliff" is a scam. It's designed by the ultra-wealthy to pass the costs of the last decade's wars and tax cuts on the poor.

    Look at who's represented on the so-called "Fix the Debt" group. Most are affiliated with Peter G. Peterson, a very rich man and a long-time opponent of the social safety net. They got theirs, they got a lot of it from the government in the form of defense contracts, but even though you paid for yours, you're not going to get it, because they're going to use the debt to take it away from you.

    If debt were really the issue in the "fiscal cliff" these guys would be in barrels lining up to go over it. Sequestration is an answer to the debt, a collection of tax increases and spending cuts designed last year to do what Congress had found itself manifestly unable to do, cut our debt.

    So what are Peterson and his friends wringing their hands about? They don't like tax hikes - who does? They don't like their own interests in government spending to be put at risk - who does? They don't like the priorities here - we just had an election about those priorities and their side lost.

    Rise above what? If we're rising above anything, tax increases have to be part of the mix. Why is "Fix the Debt" fighting so hard to rescind these tax increases? And why is the President even concerned?

    It's because, on balance, there's more deficit reduction in the package than the economy can take right now. It's the right medicine, there's just way too much of it. Growth, in the near run, will take a hit if we go over the cliff. Which increases the debt rather than decreases it. That's what the United Kingdom is experiencing.

    But that's no reason to sell stocks. It's an opportunity to get a better deal, either now or next month. One with a little less austerity. Which is what Wall Street will be clamoring for if January 1 comes with no deal. Bring on the Obama tax cuts, they'll say. Bring on the stimulus.

    What's really happening is that the supply-siders and Euro-austerity bugs who got us into this mess are trying to win through negotiation what they lost in the election. And guess what - Democrats are on to the game. That's why nothing is happening. Nothing has to happen.

    It's hysterical watching John Boehner prance about, claiming he's going to prevent taxes from going up January 1. Don't you get it - taxes are going up on everyone unless you do something. Spending is going down unless you do something. The fiscal cliff is what you wanted, what you voted for. This is all buyer's remorse.

    Eric Parnell is shocked, shocked, that the total national debt has risen $5 trillion in the last five years. Why did that happen? Did President Obama walk into office with a healthy economy? Did he walk in with America at peace? With a cooperative political partner on the other side?

    No. He walked into office with the economy collapsing, falling at a 9% annual rate, not the 4% rate he was given by the outgoing Administration. He also walked into a political environment where Republicans were devoted to only two goals - keeping the tax cuts and wars that were causing the deficit, and doing all they could to prevent a recovery under a Democratic President.

    So we had the Recovery Act, which did in fact pile almost $1 trillion onto the debt. But the fiscal impact of that act has disappeared. What's left, in terms of driving the debt, are mainly the tax cuts and the war. What I wanna know from Peter G. Peterson, Rick Santelli, all the folks at CNBC, from Simpson and Bowles and all their friends at Fix the Debt, is how they plan to pay for the damned war they put on our credit card a decade ago.

    Throw grandma from the train? Tell the poor to pound sand? They really think that's going to repay the $10 trillion (with interest) these two wars have cost the American people? Really? Really.

    There is an economic reality to all this. Too much austerity, too fast, and we go back into recession, which puts off any effort to pay down the debt by any means we can devise, other than literally eating grandma (nor raw, cooked) and playing "Hunger Games" with those newly graduated from college.

    But we don't have to deal with that this month. We can have Obama tax cuts, and a new round of stimulus, next year. That's what is probably going to happen, by the way, although it's likely the tax cuts on 98% of us continue, at least for a while.

    But how does that fix the debt? It doesn't.

    Fact is we put two wars on the credit card, and have to pay for them. My idea is to tax carbon, to tax fossil fuels. Get rid of all existing programs for renewable energy, and make the link to paying for the wars explicit, make it patriotic. It will take 10 years, but that's how long the wars lasted. We can do this. Ending the tax cuts, now or a little later, restores another piece of the balance. Anything else is along the margins.

    When anyone asks me about the debt I have one question. "What's your plan for paying for the wars we put on the credit card and left there?" Whatever you felt about the last decade, whether you supported or opposed the policies of that decade, we're all responsible for the result.

    What we need to rise above is our ignoring of that reality.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Themes: economy
Back To Dana Blankenhorn's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (8)
Track new comments
  • Alphadaze
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Well said as usual.
    5 Dec 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Too bad I couldn't get this published on the main site, but it taught me an interesting lesson I'll be discussing at my personal blog on Friday. Along with an unedited version of this.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert S.
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Amen brother.Let em' have it.
    5 Dec 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohntheOld
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Agree.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert S.
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    That's why they call the democratic party, "the party of the common man".
    5 Dec 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I prefer Will Rogers' formulation. "I don't belong to any organized political party. (beat 2,3, 4) I'm a Democrat."
    6 Dec 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • cash
    , contributor
    Comments (447) | Send Message
     
    >>They got theirs, they got a lot of it from the government in the form of defense contracts, but even though you paid for yours, you're not going to get it, because they're going to use the debt to take it away from you.

     

    Truer words have never been written. Ooodles of money is wasted by the pentagon. Military spending needs to be slashed big before they consider increasing taxes.
    5 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The debt is high enough that both need to be done. Personally I'm for a carbon tax, and will write about that at some point, somewhere.
    6 Dec 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.