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Eric Cota
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I'm a value investor for the long term primarily focused on firms in the S&P 500 that produce solid free cash flow and pay dividends. I look for undervalued firms using a discounted cash flow model. I reinvest dividends and track performance on a total return, risk-adjusted basis. Five years... More
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  • Harris Corporation: Cash Flow Valuation Update 0 comments
    Aug 30, 2012 5:02 PM | about stocks: HRS

    Current Price: ~ $47/share
    Yield: ~ 2.57%

    Harris sells communications products and services to government and commercial customers in more than 150 countries. With recent acquisitions in new end markets, Harris will report results in RF communications (38% of fiscal 2011 sales), government communications (29%), and integrated network solutions (33%). The U.S. government represented 72% of sales in fiscal 2011. Based in Melbourne, Fla., Harris has operations worldwide and employs about 17,000 people.

    Estimated WACC for the firm today is 10.24% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

    Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:

    Year FCF $Millions
    2003 80
    2004 204
    2005 226
    2006 188
    2007 310
    2008 404
    2009 545
    2010 605
    2011 508
    2012 619

    (click to enlarge)

    Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 33%

    CAGR FCF: ~ 25.5%
    Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 15% per year

    Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 3% per year

    Internal Growth Rate: ~ -2% (Dividends per share > Earnings per share in 2012)

    Scenario 1
    Average FCF (2012, 2011, 2010) is $577 million

    • Start at $577 million FCF
    • Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 3% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

    Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

    Year FCF $Millions
    0 577
    1 594
    2 612
    3 631
    4 649
    5 669
    Terminal Value 6727

    The firm's future free cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 10.24%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $6495 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $2148 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $4347 million. $4347 million / 112 million outstanding shares is approximately $39 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $31/share.

    Scenario 2
    All else being equal,

    • Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 6% per year, then 2.25% growth in FCF per year forever:

    Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

    Year FCF $Millions
    0 577
    1 612
    2 648
    3 687
    4 728
    5 772
    Terminal Value 10242
    • Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $8858 million
    • Value of Equity: $6710 million or $60/share
    • 20% margin of safety is $48/share


    Yahoo! Finance

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: HRS
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