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Eric Cota
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I'm a value investor for the long term primarily focused on firms in the S&P 500 that produce solid free cash flow and pay dividends. I look for undervalued firms using a discounted cash flow model. I reinvest dividends and track performance on a total return, risk-adjusted basis. Five years... More
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  • Raytheon - Good value on a cash flow valuation basis 0 comments
    Jan 19, 2011 2:14 PM | about stocks: RTN

    I believe RTN, at approximately $51/share, is a good value with a margin of safety.

    Raytheon is a major United States defense contractor with nearly $25 billion in annual sales that operates through six segments: integrated defense systems, intelligence and information, missile systems, network-centric systems, space and airborne systems, and technical services. Sales to the U.S. government account for more than 88% of the company's total sales. Waltham, Mass., based Raytheon employs 75,000 people.
    (Source: Morningstar.com)

    I estimated the firm's WACC at 9.11% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings. 

    RTN's recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:

    YearFCF $Millions
    2000529
    2001-353
    2002581
    20031043
    20041708
    20052177
    20062371
    2007800
    20081711
    20092445
    TTM1824

    CAGR: approx. 19%
    Internal Growth Rate: approx. 7%
    Sustainable Growth Rate: approx. 18%
    Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: approx. 13% per year
    Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: approx. 8% per year

    Assume a lower 5-year growth rate of 6% per year, and assume that after the next five years, the company achieves no growth or 0% growth per year forever.

    Discounted Cash Flow Valuation:

    YearFCF $ Millions
    01824
    11933
    22049
    32172
    42303
    52441
    Terminal Value28397

    The firm's future cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 9.11%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $26,731 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $2,781 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $23,950 million.

    $23,950 million / 365 million outstanding shares = $65.62 per share. A 20% margin of safety from here is approx $52 per share and RTN's current share price is approx $51.  I consider RTN a good buy with a margin of safety for the long term on a cash flow valuation basis.

    Stocks: RTN
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