ICAP's EBS Oct and Nov numbers confirm decrease in Q4.
It seems as though Forex trading volumes worldwide will be down in Q4 from earlier-in-the-year levels, barring any wild trading in the few remaining weeks before year-end.
An excellent proxy for forecasting trading at the retail Forex firms are reported volume levels at Forex ECNs. These ECNs, such as ICAP's EBS, State Street's Currenex, Knight Capital's Hotspot FX, and FXall (currently in registration for an IPO), are often the source for live quotes at retail Forex firms – and the trades made at retail firms often end up being executed, directly (via agent firms) or indirectly (via market maker firms engaging in hedging), at Forex ECNs. While Forex ECNs also serve other institutional and corporate customers, a healthy portion of their volumes originate at retail Forex firms. And with more and more retail Forex firms (such as MIG Bank, FxPro and FXCM) going the "agent" route, or at least offering that option to clients, we would expect higher volume levels at Forex ECNs.
For more details see LeapRate's Forex Industry News at leaprate.com.