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Cliff Smith
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I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and seven grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S.... More
  • Recommendations For March 17, 2014 5 comments
    Mar 15, 2014 12:14 PM | about stocks: HYLD, FPX, CSD, PJP, IYR, BWX, CVY, HYMB, SCHH

    Please realize you use these recommendations at your own risk. I am not a registered financial advisor. If for any unforeseen reason I do not post the recommendations for the next period, please sell the ETFs and go to cash.

    Shown below are the March 17, 2014 ETF recommendations for the tactical strategies I have discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. March 17th is the day to make your trades on these strategies.

    I'm using a little different format to list the recommendations and present the 2014 results. I'm using output from ETFreplay. I hope you find the new format informative.

    *Aggressive SSSEquity2 Strategy

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    Aggressive SSSEquity4 Strategy

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    *Moderate AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    Please note: For the AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy I have made some slight modifications to improve the strategy. I have reduced the number of ETFs from 14 to 10, and increased the number of selections each period to three instead of two. I am always looking for ways to improve the strategy, and these modifications enhanced the backtested results and reduced volatility.

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    Conservative AssetBlend Strategy

    The AssetBlend Strategy combines the AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy (60%) and the Bond-Only Strategy (40%).

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    *Conservative SSS2 Strategy

    The SSS2 Strategy combines the SSSEquity2 Strategy (60%) and the Bond-Only Strategy (40%).

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    *Conservative Unified Tactical Strategy (UTS)- Best used on large accounts ($100K-$1000K)

    The UTS combines the SSSEquity2 Strategy (30%), the AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy (30%), and the Low Volatility Bond Strategy (40%).

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    *Bond-Only Strategy

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    *Low Volatility Bond (LVB) Strategy

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    *Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY - Trade on Day of 3 Day & 25 Day Moving Average Ratio Crossover

    Please note: If you are interested in this strategy, I can send you the signal the day it occurs. Please send me a SA message asking to be included on the HYLD/SHY alert list.

    Buy: Jan. 2, 2014 Sell: Open Trade

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    RisingRatesBondStrategy (RRBS2)

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    RisingRatesBondStrategy (RRBS3)

    This strategy (RRBS3) has the same selections and performance as RRBS2 so far in 2014.

    Conservative Schwab-Free Strategy

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    These strategies have been backtested over a limited timeframe and shown to produce good growth with minimum risk, but future results may be dependent on factors not considered. Use these recommendations at your own risk.

    * I have my real money invested in these strategies.

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Comments (5)
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  • Noam P
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Hi Cliff,

     

    Like the new format. However, when I click to enlarge, I can only read the first 3 columns (Start, End, Portfolio). I do not know if it is just my computer.

     

    I see you have your own personal funds invested in 7 of the strategies. Could you tell us what percentage of your total portfolio that you have allocated to each of the 7 strategies?

     

    Thanks.
    16 Mar, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Randy E.
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Hi Cliff,
    The new format is great, very easy to read. Noam, if I resize my browser window (Ctrl/-) I can see all the columns.

     

    In three of the strategies IEV was recommended for March 3 but now in this post, in the results for that time period, PJP seems to have been substituted. Does this mean that each period, you will be posting back-tested results instead of actual results from your personal investment in these strategies?

     

    Thanks again,
    Randy
    16 Mar, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (333) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Noam,

     

    After enlarging, scroll over to the right to get the rest of the information. It's there, you just have to scroll over to it.

     

    I have 30% of my retirement funds in these strategies. I would probably have a larger percentage, but I had already invested in Wilbanks and CMG (Capital Management Group) before I started studying tactical strategies and then developing them.

     

    But it's always good to have multiple strategies in play.

     

    Thanks,
    Cliff
    16 Mar, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (333) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Randy,

     

    No, I hope that all is now stabilized. The only strategy I modified was AllAssetsExceptBonds. It happens to be part of a few other strategies.

     

    Thanks,
    Cliff
    16 Mar, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Noam P
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Cliff & Randy E.,

     

    I couldn't see the scroll bar at the bottom of the page. By using Randy E.'s suggestion (Ctrl/-) to resize my screen, I was then able to see the scroll bar. All is well now. Thanks.
    17 Mar, 02:26 AM Reply Like
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