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Cliff Smith
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I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and seven grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S.... More
  • Tactical ETF Recommendations For May 16, 2014 6 comments
    May 15, 2014 9:03 PM | about stocks: TLT, HYMB, HYLD, IEF, IYR, RWX, FEU, HGI, PCY

    Please realize you use these recommendations at your own risk. I am not a registered financial advisor. If for any unforeseen reason I do not post the recommendations for the next period, please sell the ETFs and go to cash.

    Shown below are the May 16, 2014 ETF recommendations for the tactical strategies I have discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. May 16th is the day to make your trades on these strategies. The figures shown below are taken from ETFreplay calculations, and the entire 2014 selections and results are presented. I have been tracking most of these strategies in real time since the beginning of 2014.

    I have decided to reduce my work load and not publish so many strategies starting with this article. It usually takes me over three hours to write one of these recommendation articles, and I need to cut back. So starting with this article, I'm only going to publish recommendations on two equity strategies (SSSEquity4 Strategy and AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy) and four bond strategies (Bond-Only Strategy, Low Volatility Bond Strategy, RisingRateBondStrategy3, and HYLD/SHY), and let you mix and match the strategies as you desire (between equity and bond). I will also present the strategy using Schwab commission-free ETFs since many are following that strategy. By reducing the number of strategies down to seven, I will reduce my work load by about half. Most of the combined strategies I have presented previously (e.g. the Unified Tactical Strategy, the Unified Bond Strategy, etc.) can be composed from these basic strategies.

    If for some reason you have been using a strategy that I have dropped, please send me a SA message.

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

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    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    This is the modified AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy that picks three ETFs each period. I switched to this version a number of months ago.

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    Bond-Only Strategy

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    Low Volatility Bond, LVB, Strategy

    This is the modified LVB with HYMB added to universe (no other changes).

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    RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3

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    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Trade on Day of 3 Day & 25 Day Moving Average Ratio Crossover

    Please note: If you are interested in this strategy, I can send you the signal the day it occurs. Please send me a SA message asking to be included on the HYLD/SHY alert list.

    Buy: Jan. 2, 2014 Sell: Open Trade

    We may be close to trading. See the second chart below. When the red line crosses the black line, we will sell HYLD.

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    Schwab-Free Commission Strategy

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    These strategies have been backtested over a limited timeframe and shown to produce good growth with minimum risk, but future results may be dependent on factors not considered. Use these recommendations at your own risk.

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Comments (6)
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  • rkctech
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Cliff:

     

    I would really appreciate if you include Schwab ETF's in a study.

     

    Thanks
    16 May, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Cliff Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have a Schwab strategy that uses only commission free ETFs from Schwab. Here's the link: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The picks for this strategy are at the bottom of this instablog.

     

    Thanks,
    Cliff
    16 May, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • dbernatm
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Dear Cliff
    I got a ETFreplay subscription, and I tried to simulated your Bond-Only Strategy.
    I don’t' understand why but I got different results when:
    1. I use portfolio relative strength backtesting, I got TLT as the top ETF for the period ending last Friday(23 may)
    2. Later, when I go to ETF screening I do the same, with the same weights, and I get a different output, EMB, and second BLV, and later TLT
    Why is that? What am I doing wrong

     

    Thanks Cliff, your articles are very good, I am setting up a portfolio based on your UniBond strategy

     

    thanks
    26 May, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • Cliff Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Through May 23rd, I get EMB using the portfolio relative strength backtesting and also using the ETFScreener. TLT was the pick at the end of the 15th and is the selection for the May 16th - present time period, but the current (provisional) pick is EMB. If a new time period started on Tuesday, then the pick would be EMB.

     

    Thanks,
    Cliff
    26 May, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • dbernatm
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Cliff:

     

    Just to confirm, I am little confuse with the Low Volatility Bond strategy, the ETFs in this portfolio are:
    SHY
    BKLN
    IEF
    HYLD
    HYMB - has been included later on

     

    thanks
    26 May, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Cliff Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The ETFs are BKLN, IEF, HYLD, and HYMB. SHY is cash (or you can use BIL).

     

    Thanks,
    Cliff
    26 May, 06:24 PM Reply Like
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