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Mathieu Malecot's  Instablog

Mathieu Malecot
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I'll try and be: flexible, patient, useful. I know I'm dry. The good news is I like the ocean. Individual investor.
  • Preemptive Strikes - The Effect Of QED On My Trading Patterns. 0 comments
    Oct 3, 2012 5:34 AM | about stocks: RIG, ARCP, WLFC, XOM, CBI

    my brain is a probability machine. learning is getting desired results; pattern recognition the positioning of oneself in the right space at the right time.

    "don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it!" the statistical approach to predicting market behavior is the discovery of our idiosyncratic human experience. this is called, "a technical analysis."

    when clinging to notions of free exchange, i must remember my mind was made up. as i revel in victory and wallow in defeat i will recall the amazing mess of waves around the room.

    before abandoning responsibility i hope to learn the probable is never certain. a single unlikely event to create a universe of inconceivable outcomes.


    sold off rig the same day SDRL lost 20+% (11/25). sold off ARCP at 12% return over the last two weeks.

    i own CBI. i am raising cash and looking at buying more cheap stuff. XOM is yielding 3% today. i like it and WLFC. WLFC is trading below book. leasing planes should be easier if oil stays down. XOM has low cost production and should rebound nicely if oil moves up.

    CBI is in the business of developing energy infrastructure. they benefit from cheap nat gas. they don't look to lose much revenue if oil prices stay low. i think people are scared of debt and recent purchase. of course recent purchase is why this company has debt. that debt is covered by last years earnings... my target here is 75$ and i love getting long here because i don't really see disaster on the 6 month horizon.

    it will be very interesting to see if XOM, WLFC or ??? will attract my money before/over CBI. i am raising money and very happy with the market's reaction to oil prices.

    Stocks: RIG, ARCP, WLFC, XOM, CBI
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