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Ivan Jimenez
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  • UniBoss Vs XSense Pricing 13 comments
    May 6, 2013 5:10 AM | about stocks: ATML

    There has been a lot of talk about UniBoss pricing advantage against XSense so I decided to do the math.

    UniBoss = $20 pre square feet

    UniBoss $20 square feet
    12x12= 144 square inches
    $20 / 144 = $0.1388888.. a square inch

    XSense = $10 for 10 inches diagonal

    To make the math equal and figure out how much XSense cost per square foot I had to figure out the dimension of a 10" display per Pythagoras and I came up with 6" x 8" would do.

    But to make a 10 inch display you also need more film to do the die cutting so I added 1 inch in each side as a margin for die cutting and 3 inches at the buttom for the connector and I came up with a raw film of 8" x 12" needed to make a 6" x 8" sensor.

    8 x 12 = 96 square inches
    $10 / 96 = $0.104 square inches

    Per this math XSense is cheaper than UniBoss.

    You can redo the math with smaller margins to get the numbers in favor of UniBoss but there really isn't a price advantage.

    UniBoss will have to compete with XSense in quality first.

    Also Atmel is exploring to license XSense to module manufacturers to expand production.

    Because these manufacturers already have the photo lithography equipment required XSense can really expand production exponentially.

    Disclosure: I am long ATML.

    Themes: UNXL Stocks: ATML
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Comments (13)
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  • Chris Hofmann
    , contributor
    Comments (755) | Send Message
     
    any evidence on the $10 per 10 diagonal inches for XSense?
    6 May 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ivan Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Is not $10 per the Atmel's 2012 Q1 CC Call:
    "I will share with you that the pricing, as you get a above say, 10 inches, it does get into the area of above $10. So it's a very considerable impact of opportunity for us."
    7 May 2013, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Ivan Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Our touch sensors are around half the cost of the equivalent Indium Tin Oxide ones." Carclo’s chief executive Ian Williamson
    7 May 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • JBird61
    , contributor
    Comments (285) | Send Message
     
    Ivan,

     

    How does that "half the cost of equivalent ITO" compare to UNXL who expects to sell their sensors at half of ITO based sensors, but expect 'well north of 50%' margins at that price. Price and cost are not the same thing. My interpretation is that UNXL is implying that they can produce the sensors far below 25% (half of the price and that price is half margin/half cost = 0.5x0.5 = 0.25 cost) of the cost of ITO supply chain equivalent. If Carclo's cost is half, and they sell it for half of ITO (like UNXL targets), then they are selling at NO margin (again, my interpretation). Does that logic make sense to others? I have not seen similar comments, but that logic is the key difference in my view of market-driven long-term competition between the two. (This assumes that the functional/performance differences between them are not huge as both are vastly better than ITO, from all accounts.)

     

    As has been pointed out, there is PLENTY of market for both ATML and UNXL to succeed without stepping on each other's toes much for the next couple years .. beyond a few years, there will be more than just these few competitors, so it is hard to even speculate on market share or 'the winning technology' - such is the constantly evolving tech market.
    7 May 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Chris Hofmann
    , contributor
    Comments (755) | Send Message
     
    It is the Q4 2012 call, not Q1. Also, he makes a very very vague statement, and precedes it with the following:
    "But I don't want to give out the specific pricing because of competitive reasons again, because the alternative for all of these customers is ITO and obviously, what our guys attempt to do is to sell not directly saying, hey, I can undercut you."

     

    My assumption, based on these statements, is that XSense is probably fairly similarly priced to ITO on small screens, and then the price differential grows as the screen size grows due to ITO limitations. This is very different than UniBoss which starts significantly cheaper even on smaller screens, and the differential grows from there.

     

    Your analysis is extremely biased in your assumptions regarding comparing apples with apples (or oranges).
    7 May 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • JBird61
    , contributor
    Comments (285) | Send Message
     
    Chris, in vastly different words, I think we are largely saying the same thing. XSense cost is better than ITO, but price cannot be much better without small margins. UniBoss has a much bigger cost advantage and can gain great price advantage while still maintaining large margins.
    7 May 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • The Stock Miner
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    "Also Atmel is exploring to license XSense to module manufacturers to expand production.

     

    Because these manufacturers already have the photo lithography equipment required XSense can really expand production exponentially."

     

    Ivan, while Atmel may be "exploring" Unipixel is progressing forward at a rapid pace. With the signing of their ecosystem partner (strong indications it's Intel) and signing Kodak as their production partner, UniPixel will be redefining "expanding exponentially".

     

    People should give a good listen to their recent 1st Qtr CC

     

    http://bit.ly/VxnEPy
    6 May 2013, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ivan Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cool!
    7 May 2013, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Ivan Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes but UniBoss can only expanded in-house.
    While XSense can be adopted by the whole industry as a standard.

     

    ;-)
    7 May 2013, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • clifk
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Chris et al,

     

    I am surprised you forgot our previous interaction over pricing. As Ivan also points out, the only statement on pricing from Atmel/CIT is the above $10 for 10 diagonal inch pricing from the 4Q earnings call. It is frankly ridiculous to suggest that Atmel are targetting zero margin as postulated for XSense - they are aiming to achieve margins in excess of 50% across their business. I guess it may be inconvenient to your basic premise that Uniboss is cheaper than any other technology by a country mile when the evidence suggests otherwise.

     

    I think that Ivan's assessment is very much in line with mine. What I would point out is that if you further weight true costs by yield and not just by the cost per square foot, the figures won't flatter Uniboss.
    8 May 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Hofmann
    , contributor
    Comments (755) | Send Message
     
    clifk,

     

    Again, the quote is vague and really doesn't tell us that much. We also know that Atmel and Carclo have both consistently stated that their prices compete with ITO, and they don't seem to be marketing it as being significantly cheaper.

     

    If the 10" is $10, lets ignore Ivan's biased math and go directly to square inches (since the quote is vague). That would imply that 48" is $10, and 144" is $30, which is 50% more expensive than UniBoss.

     

    Out of curiosity, what are the yields on xSense? 80%?
    8 May 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Ivan Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Clifk

     

    The pixies do not understand how economical Carclo's process is. They have been mis-informed by UNXL that has made then believe that Carclo removes copper from film or something crazy like that.

     

    UNXL low yields are going to force them to inspects each sensor individually before and after it gets metalized.

     

    Carclo's process is more sturdy so it will only get inspection once everything is finish.

     

    UNXL trows away 30% of the film to the trash.

     

    They will have to monitor the resin density, viscosity, temperature,
    8 May 2013, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • clifk
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Chris,

     

    I really don't know what XSense yields are, so can only surmise that as they have product out in the market yields would be far north of 70%.

     

    As Ivan alludes, the CIT process is roll to roll and doesn't involve batch etching as has been IMO somewhat mischievously suggested. According to the Atmel 1Q earnings statement, the competition for XSense with their client set is with ITO, which is why they compare themselves with that technology and not as some would imply because they cost the same.

     

    We have debated comparative costs previously, and all the available evidence suggests that at the very least XSense and Uniboss are in the same ballpark costwise. We had to agree then to differ on whose was less expensive to produce and, although I side with Ivan, I suggest we may need to do so again.
    10 May 2013, 03:30 AM Reply Like
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