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S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 12/23/2010

It was a fourth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). During the week, the ^GSPC gained 12.86 points, or 1.03%, and closed at 1256.77 on Thursday, December 23, 2010. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite indices have Uptrend Exhaustion alert. Read More ...

S&P 500 index long-term uptrend had started on March 6, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 1259.39 on Wednesday December 22, 2010. S&P 500 gained -592.6 points, or almost 90%, in 22 months. The chart has formed a three wave's structure. The third (NYSE:C) wave is in progress now.
 
 
S&P 500 long-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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The third (C) wave up has a five wave's structure. It has started on July 1st at 1010.91 and gained almost 25% reaching 1259.39 on Wednesday December 22.
 
 
S&P 500 medium-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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The fifth sub wave is in progress now. It has started on November 16, 2010 at 1173 and gained 86.39 or almost 7.4%. The fifth sub wave has a fifth wave's structure as well.
 
 
S&P 500 short-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and weekly Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) are overbought while daily Williams' Percentage Range, Lane's Stochastic, and weekly Williams' Percentage Range are strongly overbought. Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has bearish divergence.

More than 40% of S&P 500 members have overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic indicator and more than 68% have overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range indicator.

More than 127 of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, while 19 of them closed this week below the previous week's close. This event is called a "buying climax".

The S&P 500 members' weekly MACD bearish/bullish divergence ratio is 48/4. It means that 12 times more S&P 500 members have weekly MACD bearish divergence than the bullish divergence. The weekly Lane's stochastic bullish/bearish divergence ratio is 89/1.

All the above technical indicators are bearish. S&P 500 index uptrend may reverse soon.

 
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