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S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 3/11/2011

|Includes:SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)
All the major US indices were negative. For the week ending March 11, 2001 the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -125.48 points or -1.03%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped -69.06 points or -2.48%. The S&P 500 index dropped -16.87 points, or -1.28%, and closed at 1304.28 on Friday, March 11, 2011. Weekly volume was -6% below average. Read More ...

S&P 500 index long-term uptrend had started on March 6, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 1344.07 on February 18, 2011. S&P 500 gained 677.28 points, or more than 101%, in less than two years. Weekly Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) is overbought. The chart has formed a three wave?s structure. The third (NYSE:C) wave is in progress now.
 
 
S&P 500 long-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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The third (C) wave up has a five wave structure. It has started on July 1st at 1010.91 and gained almost 33% reaching 1344.07 on February 18, 2011. The wave has formed a channel. Price is near the support line. Daily Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) is strong oversold.
 
 
S&P 500 medium-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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During the last week, the price has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average. While daily technical indicators are oversold, the 50 Day Moving Average is considered a support level.
 
S&P 500 medium-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Click to enlarge

On Friday the S&P 500 chart has formed a Bearish Thrusting Candlestick pattern. This pattern occurs in a downtrend and it shows a rally failure in a down market. This is a continuation pattern.

More than 10% of S&P 500 members have an Uptrend Support alert. 74 of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, while almost half of them (36) closed this week below the previous week's close. This event is called a "buying climax".

The S&P 500 members' weekly MACD bearish/bullish divergence ratio is 71/5. It means that 14 times more S&P 500 members have weekly MACD bearish divergence than the bullish divergence. The weekly Lane's stochastic bearish/bullish divergence ratio is 105/2.
 
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Stocks: SPY