As I guessed previously, Israel would start doing something soon. I said Israel could strike Iran, but instead they attacked Hamas (which is a close ally of Iran). After assassinating a top commander from Hamas, they bombarded the seaside strip and now bombarded the Hamas headquarters with it.
Of course this is an act of war and I see this relationship between Israel and Iran soon escalating in a bad way as pointed out here. We already see that this war could spill over to Iran. There are many reasons for this.
We'll see what happens next. If defense spending goes up significantly you'll know what to do with commodities.