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Albert Sung is the author of the Katchum Macro-Economic Blog, monitoring breaking economic news from a day to day basis. He started investing in 2008 because of the economic crisis and holds a masters degree in chemical engineering. Previously, he worked several years as a process engineer at... More
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  • Registered To Eligible Silver Ratio At All Time Lows 0 comments
    Jan 30, 2013 7:21 PM | about stocks: SLV

    For people who are worried about the recent rise in the total silver stock at the COMEX I want to point out that the registered inventory hasn't gone up (Chart 1). Only the eligible inventory has gone up. The ratio of registered to eligible is now 33%. In 2009 it was 133% (more registered than eligible silver) (Chart 2).

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart 1: Silver Stock COMEX

    The lowest ratio historically was 40% mid 2011 if we look on Chart 2. But today the ratio is even lower as I stated before (namely 33%). Eligible silver is now at the highest ever while registered silver is at the lowest ever. The reason for this is that people are taking delivery on their physical silver. That's the fact. Only registered silver counts, eligible silver is just a warrant that can be converted into registered silver. But you need to find this registered silver somewhere of course...

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart 2: COMEX silver stock

    The funny thing is that open interest is increasing now. As of the previous week open interest had increased to 148,351, which is pretty high. The short positions have increased too.

    As I pointed out before, if open interest and short positions increase, but the registered inventory doesn't increase, it says to me that there is a shortage of silver. The reason is, if you are crowded with silver traders, you need to have the physical stock available, so registered silver needs to be going up, which it is not.

    P.S.: if I'm telling you wrong facts, please correct me. I'm still learning.

    Disclosure: I am long AGQ.

    Stocks: SLV
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