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Albert Sung is the author of the Katchum Macro-Economic Blog, monitoring breaking economic news from a day to day basis. He started investing in 2008 because of the economic crisis and holds a masters degree in chemical engineering. Previously, he worked several years as a process engineer at... More
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  • Correlation: Total Central Bank Balance Sheet Vs. Gold Price 0 comments
    Mar 3, 2013 4:13 AM | about stocks: GLD

    I once said there was a correlation between the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the gold price. As a result there is also a correlation between M1 and the gold price. This is still the case.

    But gold is universal, so you should look at the balance sheets of every central bank in the world.



    (click to enlarge)
    Chart 1: Total Central Bank Assets

    Even though the Federal Reserve balance sheet has been going up due to QE3, there is one central bank that did the opposite recently. That dreaded central bank is the ECB.

    As you can see on Chart 2, the ECB has shrinked its balance sheet due to the repayment of LTRO. European banks paid off 137 billion euro on 25 January 2013. So you can see the dip here.



    (click to enlarge)
    Chart 2: ECB Assets

    That repayment of LTRO coincided with a rise in the EUR/USD (Chart 3).



    (click to enlarge)
    Chart 3: EUR/USD

    And a drop in gold price in euros.

    Chart 4: Gold Price in Euro

    So forget complacency in the Eurozone as reason for the dropping gold price. Just look at the balance sheet of the ECB as primary reason.

    We may not forget that the ECB has one of the largest balance sheet in the world (after China) and we need to monitor their balance sheet even more than the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Japan should be monitored closely too.

    You can monitor the ECB balance sheet here.

    For the Japanese balance sheet you must google it.

    Disclosure: I am long AGQ.

    Stocks: GLD
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