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Iran Oil Embargo: Russia Will Be The Ultimate Winner

|Includes:PJSC Gazprom ADR (OGZPY), OIL

I really love macroeconomics, especially when it's about political themes. This Sunday 1 July 2012 Europe is starting a full oil embargo against Iran. It will not import oil from Iran.

Iran will lose 30% of its exports, while Europe loses 6% of its oil imports. This means tight supply of oil and a rising oil price (8%) as a consequence.

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Chart 1: Crude Oil Price

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Oil imports into Europe can be found here: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/oil/import_export_en.htm

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Table1: Oil Imports to Europe

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You can see that the biggest oil exporter to Europe, namely Russia (30%) will be the ultimate winner here. That's why investing in Russia is a good thing. For example: Gazprom. I discussed this stockpick here.

The oil embargo also increases the chance of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which will be benefiting the oil price and the Baltic dry index.

Disclosure: I am long OTCPK:OGZPY.

Stocks: OGZPY, OIL