I decided to start monitoring the contango-backwardation curve of copper (Chart 1). In a previous article I noted a pretty significant correlation between contango and price of copper.
We see that the negative correlation between copper price and 1 yr futures contango is still existing. But it's difficult to predict the price of copper, because the contango curve and the price curve are almost exactly following each other. We could say we almost have a 100% correlation here.
But, something weird happened on 14 May 2012 though, where the copper price was in steep backwardation, but the copper price didn't go up... So there still are discrepancies in this correlation.
Let's see if this monitoring of the copper contango will bring new ideas.
Chart 1: Copper Price-Contango (USD/lb)