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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing Level 2) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. J is the Founder and President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial... More
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Mintzmyer Investments LLC
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  • Just How Reliable Has J Mintzmyer Been? 4 comments
    Jan 30, 2012 11:18 AM | about stocks: ARO, DRYS, GME, MSFT, NFLX, NOK, QLIK, SBLK, WMT

    I see posts all the time on Seeking Alpha berating analysts who have been going against the herd for a long period of time. Rocco Pendola is perhaps the most vocal of these contrarian investors, but I have had the pleasure of associating with various other contributors over the past year. During the first half of 2011, I was sufficiently happy with commenting my projections, and my top comment calls were to:

    1. Short NFLX: "Once the media analyst honeymoon is over, NFLX will begin to slide. Couple that with Amazon's foray, and I see a 1 year target of $80/share." Jan 30 trade returned 43.2% YTD or 63.3% if you had got out @ target on Nov 17. S&P up 3.1% and down 4.7% respectively.
    2. Short OPEN: "OPEN is a joke story IMO… I don't see how they do anything that can't easily be copied (i.e. no moat)." Jun 24 trade returned 47.5% in 6m while the S&P was down 0.2%.
    3. Short RENN "RENN was a huge bubble north of $10 and I wouldn't buy for more than $2…every Chinese stock is the [insert growth story American company here] of China these days…" Aug 23 trade returned 28% or 43% prior to the Friday Facebook hype. S&P up 13.2 and 13.4% respectively.

    Are Seeking Alpha authors Credible?

    It is simple to go back, check my comments, and pick out some overwhelming winners. To be fair, I also have some losers (long RIMM around $25, long BBY around $30, long DRYS around $3). If you back-log every single one of my comments and imagine placing a $1000 trade on every single suggestion, I guarantee you overall massive returns (mainly since I was screaming short NFLX straight the entire year- maybe 300 comments ranging from $220-$300-$90 and very few of those are losers).

    However, why not conduct the same experiment with every single one of my articles from a 6m period onwards? Is Seeking Alpha a pathetic scam as Jim Cramer has said, or do some authors cream the market? I invite other authors to follow my trend- Backlog every article, check in 6 months. Re-iterate your buys and sells, then continue the process every 6 months. If you change your mind on a stock, make sure that you spell it out in the comments section (see my example on TEU to DCIX today). You can then take ownership of the S&P 500 gain/loss at a different period than 6 months. I recommend using a traditional $1000 investment to track results.

    My Article Recommendation Results (in order of article):

    For clarification, I only included Focus articles, not direct sector coverage. However, I will include all the stocks in future "quick lists." I have included the link to the original article via each Bolded stock.

    MSFT (long NOK also): $83 on MSFT - $113 for NOK vs. $8 for S&P 500. Still long MSFT and NOK.

    WMT: $154 vs. $8 for S&P 500. No further position on WMT.

    SBLK: $170 drop on SBLK vs. $12 gain for S&P 500. Still long SBLK.

    QLIK (short OPEN also): $63 on QLIK + $314 on OPEN vs. $19 for S&P 500. Still short QLIK and no official position on OPEN.

    DRYS: $379 loss on DRYS vs. $19 gain for S&P 500. Still long DRYS.

    GME: $42 on GME vs. $23 on S&P 500. Still long GME.

    ARO (long ARO-short ANF): $318 on ANF + $25 on ARO vs $50 for S&P 500. I blew the roof off with my cotton predictions, but since I did not actually recommend shorting cotton, I will not take the massive gains here. Still long ARO and no position on ANF/Cotton.

    My Total 6-mo Return (Articles from 27 Jul-2 Aug):

    $337 gain vs. S&P 500 gain of $139. Relative to $7000 "invested" 4.81% gain in 6 months compared to S&P 500 gain of 1.98% // outperformance of 2.83% in 6 months.

    Staying Honest:

    I didn't post a huge gain, but I managed to beat the S&P 500. I will post in about 1 week with updated coverage of about 10 of my positions. That I initiated between 3 and 12 August. If I wrote a 2nd (or 3rd) article about the same stock, I will consider that another $1000 invested in the stock at that price.

    Therefore in six months from now, I will consider that I have $1000 long in ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK and $1000 short against QLIK at Friday Jan 27 closing prices.

    In summary, to answer the article's question, I have so far outperformed the S&P 500 by 2% with an accuracy of 60%. Not great, but I'm trying to be transparent.

    Disclosure: I am long ARO, DRYS, GME, MSFT, NOK, SBLK.

    Additional disclosure: I am short QLIK and NFLX via options.

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Comments (4)
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  • IT WLD BE HELPFUL IF U GAVE AN ANALYSIS OF WHY U ARE SHORT QLIK AND THEN INDICATE HOW IT DIFFERS IN VALUATION FROM MSTR
    31 Mar 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have several articles on QLIK. Please search QLIK via the Seeking Alpha homepage, and my articles should pop up in the focus question.

     

    Long story short-- failure to meet earnings expectations for several straight quarters, coupled with (what I perceive to be) undue hype relating to tech acquisitions primarily the RNOW purchase and the Autonomy maneuver by HPQ, all topped off with massive insider sales.

     

    I don't know anything relevant regarding MSTR.
    1 Apr 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • FOR THAT MATTER I WOULD LIKE YOUR OPINION ON MAKO AND THEN PLEASE SHOW BY ANALYSIS HOW U ARRIVED AT YOUR BUY,SELL OR HOLD AND WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO CHANGE YOUR MIND.

     

    IF ANY OF THESE STOCKS ARE MOMENTUM STOCKS, WHAT ARE THE KEYS TO VALUE THEM.
    31 Mar 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have no expertise in medical stocks, sorry.
    1 Apr 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
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