I've never heard of a K-Cup, and therefore don't understand the GMCR hype, but I'm not a big coffee guy (understatement- I hate coffee). I read Einhorn's analysis and bet naked short-- made around $20/sh to cover. I bailed, unfortunately $10 too early, but I don't like naked shorting (almost had a heart attack last year with NFLX).
I just asked two of my friends who are huge coffee nuts if they'd ever heard of a Keurig-cup or K-Cup? "What the hell is that?!"
I said "apparently it's the coffee revolution or something," my buddy says "guess it isn't much of a revolution!"
For those comparing this to Apple, I remember being in school when those came out. Everyone and their mother knew what an iPod was. It was the hottest product out there- kids would wear their white earbuds with pride, and our entire football team converged to check out our QBs new iPod. If only I had any money and knew about investing at the time... 49-bagger.
K-Cups... That's a stretch. I hope I don't come back in a year and this comment bites me in the butt-- just remember AAPL had none of these accounting questions either, or GOOG, or even NFLX until very recently (approx 9 months ago).
I'll be posting on Facebook asking if any of my 950 friends know what a K-Cup is.... I'd like to know what sort of device I'm betting against before I initiate something--- I have 36 hours to get to the bottom of this and decide if I want to trade on earnings again... My gut says short, especially after reading this article by Bill Maurer: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317585-green-mountain-won-t-bottom-until-expectations-come-down
and this warning by Sam Antar:
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in GMCR over the next 72 hours.