J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing L2 in June '13) and avid personal investor who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. After passing the Series 65 and beginning initial FINRA filings,... More
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What Is A K-Cup!? Is GMCR A Fad? 1 comment
I just asked two of my friends who are huge coffee nuts if they'd ever heard of a Keurig-cup or K-Cup? "What the hell is that?!"
I said "apparently it's the coffee revolution or something," my buddy says "guess it isn't much of a revolution!"
For those comparing this to Apple, I remember being in school when those came out. Everyone and their mother knew what an iPod was. It was the hottest product out there- kids would wear their white earbuds with pride, and our entire football team converged to check out our QBs new iPod. If only I had any money and knew about investing at the time... 49-bagger.
K-Cups... That's a stretch. I hope I don't come back in a year and this comment bites me in the butt-- just remember AAPL had none of these accounting questions either, or GOOG, or even NFLX until very recently (approx 9 months ago).
I'll be posting on Facebook asking if any of my 950 friends know what a K-Cup is.... I'd like to know what sort of device I'm betting against before I initiate something--- I have 36 hours to get to the bottom of this and decide if I want to trade on earnings again... My gut says short, especially after reading this article by Bill Maurer: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317585-green-mountain-won-t-bottom-until-expectations-come-down
and this warning by Sam Antar:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/321884-green-mountain-coffee-roasters-management-shareholders-beware
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in GMCR over the next 72 hours.
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Following $DCIX earnings closely tomorrow. I'll follow up with a full report. Not too optimistic.
about 16 hours ago
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Initiated a short in $ANGI-- Nov 13 $17.50 puts. They will need a capital raise in the next q or 2.
5 days ago
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Bought Dec 13 $50 puts on $TSLA. Only buoyed by $7500 government rebate-- still not competitive event with rebate. Shorts needed insurance..
7 days ago
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