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J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing Level 2) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. Founder and President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial services... More
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  • What Is A K-Cup!? Is GMCR A Fad? 1 comment
    Jan 31, 2012 3:26 AM | about stocks: GMCR
    I've never heard of a K-Cup, and therefore don't understand the GMCR hype, but I'm not a big coffee guy (understatement- I hate coffee). I read Einhorn's analysis and bet naked short-- made around $20/sh to cover. I bailed, unfortunately $10 too early, but I don't like naked shorting (almost had a heart attack last year with NFLX).

    I just asked two of my friends who are huge coffee nuts if they'd ever heard of a Keurig-cup or K-Cup? "What the hell is that?!"

    I said "apparently it's the coffee revolution or something," my buddy says "guess it isn't much of a revolution!"

    For those comparing this to Apple, I remember being in school when those came out. Everyone and their mother knew what an iPod was. It was the hottest product out there- kids would wear their white earbuds with pride, and our entire football team converged to check out our QBs new iPod. If only I had any money and knew about investing at the time... 49-bagger.

    K-Cups... That's a stretch. I hope I don't come back in a year and this comment bites me in the butt-- just remember AAPL had none of these accounting questions either, or GOOG, or even NFLX until very recently (approx 9 months ago).

    I'll be posting on Facebook asking if any of my 950 friends know what a K-Cup is.... I'd like to know what sort of device I'm betting against before I initiate something--- I have 36 hours to get to the bottom of this and decide if I want to trade on earnings again... My gut says short, especially after reading this article by Bill Maurer: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317585-green-mountain-won-t-bottom-until-expectations-come-down

    and this warning by Sam Antar:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/321884-green-mountain-coffee-roasters-management-shareholders-beware

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in GMCR over the next 72 hours.

    Themes: Short ideas Stocks: GMCR
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    Author’s reply » I still think GMCR is over-valued; however, this post showcased a great deal of ignorance ahead of earnings. I'll follow GMCR at a distance until the next earnings report.
    13 Feb 2012, 03:43 AM Reply Like
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