J Mintzmyer's  Instablog

Last month I began my official Seeking Alpha "accountability audit" with a look back on my articles with a 6-month review. I included all of my articles, and ended up with an S&P 500 beat of 2.83% assuming $1000 investment in each position at the publishing date of my stock. I seem to be a better shorter, with an S&P kill of 21.2% over three sells and an S&P average underperform of 7.1% over 7 buys. I wrapped up my article with the following recommendations with Jan 23 close prices:

Buy: ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK

Short: QLIK

I will now reference my articles published from 3-12 August 2011.

My Article Recommendation Results (in order of article):

I only included Focus stocks and all stocks included in list articles. I strongly frown upon the Seeking Alpha users who produce dime-a-dozen list articles and then cherry pick their winners, so I will stand by my lists and accept the total return. I will include comparisons of $1000 stock investment into each stock listed.

EXM: $196 drop on EXM vs. $71 gain on S&P 500. Still long EXM, but contingent on earnings.

Value Plays: $456 gain on ARO, $348 gain on INTC, $280 gain on WMT, $261 gain on MSFT, $61 gain on BBY. $1406 total gain vs. $995 total gain on S&P 500. Still long ARO, MSFT, BBY.

HPQ: $82 drop on HPQ vs. $145 gain for S&P 500. Still long HPQ, Apotheker gone is great news.

PRGN: $378 loss on PRGN vs. $198 gain for S&P 500. Still long PRGN, new valuation article coming soon!

BBY: $18 gain on BBY vs. $145 gain for S&P 500. Still long BBY.

Shipping Companies: $213 gain on ISH, $123 gain on NMM, $148 loss on VLCCF, $180 loss on ESEA, $223 loss on NAT. $215 total loss vs. $725 total gain on S&P 500. Still long ISH, NMM, ESEA, and NAT.

EXC: $4 on EXC vs $139 for S&P 500. Still long EXC.

My Total 6-mo Return (Articles from 3 Aug-12 Aug):

$393 loss vs. S&P 500 gain of $2418. Relative to $15000 "invested" 2.62% loss in 6 months compared to S&P 500 gain of 16.12% // underperformance of 18.74% in 6 months.

Staying Honest:

In this issue, I got completely whallopped by the S&P 500. My overexposure to the shipping industry stung my overall results in spite of a value-play masterpiece. I will post in about 1 week with updated coverage on 16 of my positions that I initiated between 13 and 19 August. If I wrote a 2nd (or 3rd) article about the same stock, I will consider that another $1000 invested in the stock at that price; however, for future follow-ups only the current buy/sell will count. For example: I've credited BBY twice in this report, but I will only count my follow-up as one investment from 13 Feb 2012.

Therefore, in six months from now, I will consider that I have $1000 long in EXM, BBY, HPQ, PRGN, ISH, NMM, ESEA, NAT, and EXC at Feb 10 closing prices. I didn't include MSFT and ARO since I already have a follow-up 'buy' on those stocks from Jan 23.

I will also have $1000 long in ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK and $1000 short in QLIK at Jan 23 closing prices.

Disclosure: I am long EXM, BBY, HPQ, PRGN, ISH, NMM, ESEA, NAT, EXC, ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK, INTC.

Additional disclosure: I am also short QLIK.