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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing Level 2) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. J is the Founder and President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial... More
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  • How Reliable Has J Mintzmyer Been? Pt 3 0 comments
    Feb 27, 2012 2:38 AM | about stocks: GPS, GF, NM, DCIX, AMZN

    Last month I began my official Seeking Alpha "accountability audit" with a look back on my articles with a 6-month review. I included all of my articles, and ended up with an S&P 500 beat of 2.83% assuming $1000 investment in each position at the publishing date of my stock. In the second edition, I underperformed the S&P 500 by 18.74% primarily due to shipping stocks. I wrapped up my article with the following recommendations with February 13 close prices:

    Buy: ARO, BBY, DRYS, ESEA, EXC, EXM, ISH, GME, HPQ, MSFT, NAT, NMM, NOK, PRGN, SBLK

    Short: QLIK

    My Article Recommendation Results (in order of article from 15-25 August):

    I only included Focus stocks and all stocks included in list articles. I strongly frown upon the Seeking Alpha users who produce dime-a-dozen list articles and then cherry pick their winners, so I will stand by my lists and accept the total return. I will include comparisons of $1000 investment into each stock listed.

    Value Plays: $449 gain on ARO, $153 increase in DRYS, $85 gain on GME, $171 loss with HPQ, and $191 gain on WMT. Total gain of $707 vs. comparative gain of $670 in the S&P 500. Still long ARO, DRYS, HPQ, and GME. No further position on WMT.

    DUK: $181 return on DUK vs. $145 total gain on S&P 500. No further position.

    Dividend Growth Tech Stocks: $304 gain on INTC, $258 gain on MSFT, $176 loss on HPQ, $164 gain on IBM. Total gain of $550 vs. comparative gain of $580 in the S&P 500. Still long MSFT and HPQ, no further position on INTC or IBM.

    Dividend Growth Retail Stocks: $102 gain on TGT, $54 gain with BBY, $468 gain on GPS, and $478 gain through HD. Total gain of $1102 vs. comparative gain of $788 comparative gain with the S&P 500. Still long BBY and GPS. No further position on TGT or HD.

    GME: $61 return on GME vs. $197 gain on S&P 500. Still long GME.

    HPQ: $139 return on HPQ vs. S&P 500 return of $216. Still long HPQ.

    Discount CEFs: $66 loss with CHN, $40 loss on IFN, and $69 gain through GF. Total loss of $37 vs. S&P 500 comparative return of $525.

    AMZN (short): $75 gain from shorting vs. $175 gain on S&P 500. Still short AMZN.

    NM: $143 gain on NM vs. $160 gain on S&P 500. Still long NM.

    SHIP: $162 gain on SHIP vs. $178 gain on S&P 500. No further position. This company is extremely high risk.

    TEU: $193 gain with TEU vs. $178 gain on S&P 500. No further position on TEU, I prefer to invest in DCIX for a pure containership play.

    My Total 6-mo Return (Articles from 15 Aug-25 Aug):

    $3276 gain vs. S&P 500 gain of $3817. Relative to $23000 "invested" 14.24% gain in 6 months compared to S&P 500 gain of 16.6% // underperformance of 2.36% in 6 months.

    Staying Honest:

    In this issue, I suffered a slight beating by the S&P 500. While the shipping industry sank and then flat lined, CEFs also had a horrible year. My core value plays and strong dividend stocks strongly performed and helped keep my overall results in a decent zone.

    I did not write many articles in September or October so it will likely be a month or longer before I post another update on those positions. If I wrote a 2nd (or 3rd) article about the same stock, I will consider that another $1000 invested in the stock at that price; however, for future follow-ups only the current buy/sell will count. For example: I have credited GME twice in this report, but I will only count my follow-up as one investment from 23 Jan 2012 since that is when I made my formal recommendation.

    Therefore, in six months from now, I will consider that I have $1000 long in GPS, CHN, IFN, GF, NM, DCIX and $1000 short in AMZN at February 24 closing prices.

    I will have $1000 long in EXM, BBY, HPQ, PRGN, ISH, NMM, ESEA, NAT, and EXC at Feb 10 closing prices.

    I will also have $1000 long in ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK and $1000 short in QLIK at Jan 23 closing prices.

    Disclosure: I am long ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK, EXM, BBY, HPQ, PRGN, ISH, NMM, ESEA, NAT, EXC, GPS, CHN, IFN, GF, NM, DCIX.

    Additional disclosure: I am short QLIK and AMZN vs stock and option plays.

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