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J Mintzmyer
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J Mintzmyer is a CFA candidate (testing Level 2) and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide a free exchange of trading and investment ideas and to provide online visibility for his developing business. J is the Founder and President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial... More
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  • How Reliable Has J Mintzmyer Been? Pt 4 0 comments
    Apr 8, 2012 7:47 PM | about stocks: BBY, DRYS, DCIX

    In January, I began my official Seeking Alpha "accountability audit" with a look back on my articles with a 6-month review. I include all of my articles and related recommendations and assume a $1000 investment in each position at the publishing date of each article. This is the fourth part of my "audit" which will include three positions that I have held for 6 months or longer.

    My Article Recommendation Results (in order of article from 14 September-9 October):

    I only included Focus stocks and all stocks included in list articles. I strongly frown upon the Seeking Alpha users who produce dime-a-dozen list articles and then cherry pick their winners, so I will stand by my lists and accept the total return. I will include comparisons of $1000 investment into each stock listed.

    Best Buy: $43 loss on BBY vs. gain of $176 in the S&P 500. Still long BBY.

    Diana Containerships: $382 return on DCIX vs. $236 total gain on S&P 500. Still long DCIX.

    Dry Ships: $446 return on DRYS vs. $210 total gain on S&P 500. Still long DRYS.

    My Total 6-mo Return (Articles from 15 Aug-25 Aug):

    $785 gain vs. S&P 500 gain of $622. Relative to $3000 "invested" à 26.17% gain in 6 months compared to S&P 500 gain of 20.73% // out performance of 5.44% in 6 months.

    Staying Honest:

    In this issue, I "defeated" the S&P 500; however, BBY was a huge miss in terms of stock performance. I believe that BBY offers the best upside in relation to these three picks, and I recently doubled my holdings. I have lost to the S&P 500 in earlier issues, primarily due to the weak shipping market, so it's nice to finally see some of these holdings making a comeback of sorts.

    I did not write many articles last fall so it will likely be a month or longer before I post another update on those positions.

    I currently recommend a buy on BBY, DCIX, and DRYS, but I have already covered all three of these in previous target updates. Therefore, in six months from now, I will have no further price updates since BBY (10 Feb), DCIX (24 Feb), and DRYS (23 Jan) are already being tracked.

    I will have $1000 long in GPS, CHN, IFN, GF, NM, DCIX and $1000 short in AMZN at February 24 closing prices.

    I will have $1000 long in EXM, BBY, HPQ, PRGN, ISH, NMM, ESEA, NAT, and EXC at Feb 10 closing prices.

    I will also have $1000 long in ARO, GME, DRYS, SBLK, MSFT, NOK and $1000 short in QLIK at Jan 23 closing prices.

    Disclosure: I am long BBY, DRYS, DCIX.

    Additional disclosure: I am long all of the recommended holdings.

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