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Mark Gomes
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Get Mr. Gomes' real-time posting notifications on Twitter*. His handle is @bostongekko. Investors are also highly encouraged to read Mr. Gomes "Stocks To Triple Instruction Manual" before acting on his investment ideas: http://poisedtotriple.com/methodology Mark Gomes founded Pipeline... More
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  • Updated Notes On ALVR 7 comments
    Oct 9, 2012 12:09 PM | about stocks: ALVR

    Just an update for those of you who are involved in this one. We continue to view ALVR as a lottery ticket, which could go up several fold or lose most of its value (big risk; big reward). We're confident that management is doing all they can to ensure the latter, but many factors will come into play. We'll see how it plays out.

    • Sold the majority of its older patents.
    • Didn't sell patents for the next-gen compact WiMAX products for WiFi offload.
    • 50-100 patents remain, including patent applications and Wavion patents.
    • $8.5M has already been wired into ALVR's bank account. The rest will be sent upon approval from the Israeli Chief Scientist (which we believe has been "pre-approved" - it's just going through the official process).
    • Deals slipped for a few reasons - Deal 1: Latin American site wasn't ready. Deal 2 was a partial shipment, which is awaiting financing for the remainder (which came in shortly after the quarter ended). Deal 3: African deal that fell victim to the signature process; expected to come in 2 weeks.
    • Stimulus activity is still muted; Wifi offload is where ALVR is focused.
    • ALVR won another large win in Asia Pacific; they are pushing hard to penetrate U.S. and Europe. Overall, the wifi biz is performing according to plan - this is their growth engine.
    • Lots of cash expected to come in Q4 from patents, more asset sales, and closing shipped deals. Mgt acknowledges the need to lower the breakeven point further.
    • To mitigate future losses on failed customers, ALVR checks financials and now obtains commercial-financing insurance on about 50% of its deals.

    Disclosure: I am long ALVR.

    Stocks: ALVR
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    9 Oct 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Mark,

    Straight down for 5 years on this one. I think the chart has spoken. This is now trading like a call option. I agree that someone will get a triple but will it bottom at 50 cents or 5 cents. Hard to tell.
    10 Oct 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Also I read on some of the boards that de-listing is now inevitable because there isn't 10 trading days left between today and the 23rd. Did you hear otherwise?


    http://bloom.bg/UQzS5h
    ""Nasdaq issued the company with a delisting notice after its shares dropped below the minimum bid requirement of $1, Alvarion said on May 1. The stock needs to trade at least $1 for a minimum 10 consecutive business days by Oct. 23 for the company to remain in compliance with the exchange’s rules, according to the statement. The shares slid 3.2 percent to 42.6 cents in New York today.""
    10 Oct 2012, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "I agree that someone will get a triple but will it bottom at 50 cents or 5 cents."

    I agree with that. Such is the nature of high-risk picks like this one. As for the delisting, I wouldn't worry. Delistings are meaningless to the fundamentals. If they want to stay listed, they'll just do a reverse split. To me, it's all noise. I'd rather see them sell the WiMax biz and ramp the Wifi biz. That would have 1,000x more impact than a delisting or reverse split.

    Cheers Bazooooka
    10 Oct 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "which could go up several fold or lose most of its value (big risk; big reward). We're confident that management is doing all they can to ensure the latter,"

    This is quite a funny slip--and it may be correct.

    A few broad questions:

    Does anyone in Israel still want to work for this company? If you were smart and had a choice between Alvarion and another company, wouldn't you be worried about job security medium-term?

    Also, do you know how their technology compares to their competitors? They seem to sell a lot to emerging markets / municipalities, and not so much to folks who may want state-of-the-art stuff and are willing to pay for that. Is that because Alvarion has no state of the art stuff, or just that they're not competitive with Cisco, etc. on pricing?

    Do you see this company as ever trading for a multiple (as opposed to a fraction) of revenue? Do you think they can grow the top line, or merely stop it from shrinking? Either way provides an investment case at this point.

    Where do you get your information? Do you talk to the IR people, or just troll the web and their press releases for info?

    Many thanks.
    10 Oct 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You can't Plan to be Profitable, just take ADVANTAGE of every Opportunity that comes by...id be,Prepared for the Probable of this Play during and Earnings Season ALVR !
    10 Oct 2012, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    BlackStars,

    LOL on the slip. Nice catch.

    Lots of questions, not much time. My research comes from many sources, including paid engagements with industry experts. Pipeline data has a 6-figure research budget for doing due diligence.

    ALVR's WiMAX technology is very competitive and its Wifi technology is regarded as among the best. The company is obviously in turmoil, which is Hezi Lapid's job to repair. If I worked there, I'd be nervous, but the job environment doesn't exactly lead itself to mass defections. Those that do leave aid in lowering the company's cost base, so there's a silver lining in that. In short, the company is in major turnaround mode. Success will send the stock rocketing. Failure may result in bankruptcy. Success is made possible by the fact that they have the products to do so.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    11 Oct 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
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