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This profile, along with Mr. Gomes' investment methodology and article on "Tripling Your Money" (http://tinyurl.com/nx336wn) are required reading to understand how Mr. Gomes' researches and trades his picks. His updates are communicated via his Seeking Alpha Instablog/Articles/Comments and... More
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Pipeline Data, LLC
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  • LTRX March Quarter Review 0 comments
    May 2, 2013 10:25 PM | about stocks: LTRX

    Thursday evening, Lantronix (NASDAQ:LTRX) reported results for its third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2013. Revenue came in at $12.2 million, flat versus last quarter as well as the year-ago quarter. The company battled through macroeconomic conditions in Europe, as well as delays in product rollouts and OEM production.

    The xPrintServer Home Edition saw a seasonal slowdown, while the Office Edition ramped up. Net-net, we estimate that the xPrintServer family experienced a slight decline versus the holiday quarter (Dec) which experienced close to 100% sequential growth.

    The quarter had an equal number of positives to offer. As we previewed last quarter, the third quarter saw the launch of a new xSenso product (xSenso Controller) and a wifi version of their xPico offering.

    Also, the autumn signing of Ingram (Europe) is still proceeding well and starting to generate orders. As LTRX signs Ingram's VARs over the next couple of quarters, revenue should ramp up. This is in-line with the time line we originally envisioned. The relationship is designed to take LTRX's presence in Europe (in embedded products) and extend that to its external and device management offerings. Looking at its complete presence in the U.S., we can estimate that this relationship has the potential to drive EMEA revenues from $3.6M at present to $7M in the future.

    Similarly, its relatively new relationship with Arrow in Asia has the potential to turn APAC into LTRX's largest geography, adding $5M in revenue per quarter. However, investors will have to be patient, as this particular relationship will require 6-8 quarters to ramp up.

    Here are our updated revenue contribution charts:

    Current Revenue Contributors (Sept/Dec 2012)

    Product

    % of Revs (Dec)

    % of Revs (Mar)

    Characteristics

    Device Enablement (Embedded)

    46%

    52%

    Semiconductor-like business; 12-24 month ramp time, but huge revenues with 6+ year life cycles.* Showed 14% growth over the December quarter.

    Device Enablement (External)

    29%

    23%

    Requires 12-18 months to ramp; 5+ year life cycles.

    Device Management (SLC)

    13%

    12%

    Still a lumpy business, but LTRX sales & marketing is still pushing for sales in international markets.

    Other Device Mgt (xPrintServer / SpiderDuo)

    13%

    13%

    xPrintServer Home slowed, offset by the ramp of xPS Office; SpiderDuo held up, bu requires data center build-outs to ramp up.

    * LTRX's most successful product ever took 12-18 months to ramp.

    Future Revenue Producers (Dec 2012)

    Product / Category

    Time Needed to Ramp Revenue

    Characteristics

    xPrint Server

    Immediate

    The xPrint family is a solid contributor to company revenue.

    New xPrint Server products coming in FY13?

    Immediate

    Market Opportunity = $100M+

    SpiderDuo

    Released 2+ years ago. Starting to ramp

    Should become a solid contributor, but expect lumpiness.

    PremierWave EN

    Has been building traction for over 12 months.

    Great potential, like its other embedded products. Will exhibit a long life cycle; LTRX's Asian win from a few quarters ago is ramping up.

    xSenso

    Announced on July 31, 2012; Still needs 9-12 more months to ramp

    Connects sensors (i.e., temperature sensors) to networks; Part of a $1.5B opportunity/Needs to expand sales channels; LTRX is not a name brand in that area, so it will take several Qs to ramp up.

    Device Enablement (xPico); Started sampling in Feb '12

    Have been building traction for 9-mos. Needs several more quarters to ramp; Wifi edition should be bigger and ramp faster than the wired version.

    An equivalent current product = ~30% of revs. The new version will only create a small amount of cannibalism. They have design wins, but mostly prototype stage; needs 6-12 months to ramp.

    Future External Device Enablement products

    Will require 6-9 months to ramp

    Same as above, but with slightly shorter life cycles

    Source: Pipeline Data, LLC

    Disclosure: I am long LTRX.

    Stocks: LTRX
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