Seeking Alpha

Mark Gomes'  Instablog

Mark Gomes
Send Message
Mark Gomes is one of the world's most experienced technology analysts, with over 20 years in the market. He is also a Masters Track & Field world record holder and U.S. Gold medalist (http://www.fasterthanforty.com/hello-world/). Currently, Mr. Gomes is the CEO of PTTResearch.com, Pipeline... More
My company:
PTT Research & Pipeline Data, LLC
My blog:
Poised To Triple
My book:
Faster Than Forty
  • Techprecision Reports Q4 Results 13 comments
    Aug 19, 2013 11:38 AM | about stocks: TPCS

    TPCSE just reported Q4 results. The results were consistent with what we discussed in our weekend update.

    The company also provided Q1 guidance and an update on measures they are taking to save the company from going under.

    The Q1 guidance wasn't very good ($7 million in revenue; down almost 30% versus Q4 and a loss of $0.8 million).

    The measures they outlined were more promising. Headcount reductions and expense cuts are expected to lower annual expenses enough to get the company back to profitability. Of course, that assumes that 1) its current visibility into revenue holds up and 2) it isn't forced into bankruptcy by Sovereign Bank.

    Overall, the press release reads well and provides hope for the company. This is juxtaposed against Friday's discouraging NT 10-Q filing with the SEC, along with the 10-K, which revealed some ugly truths about how bad things were allowed to get under former-CEO James Molinaro.

    Net-net, we now believe the odds of bankruptcy are about 20% (versus the 10% estimate we originally provided).

    See our weekend update for more and stay tuned for the earnings call today at 2PM ET.

    Stocks: TPCS
Back To Mark Gomes' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (13)
Track new comments
  • Author’s reply » The Company will hold a conference call at 2 p.m. Eastern (U.S.) time on Monday, August 19, 2013. To participate in the live conference call, please dial 1‐877‐941‐2068 five to 10 minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time. International callers should dial 1‐480‐629‐9712. When prompted by the operator, mention Conference Passcode 4635649.
    19 Aug 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Overall, I think that the conference call was optimistic, and the risk of bankruptcy is low. The management seemed not to be worried and even made the search for new financing options appear like a positive. I'm sure you'll (Mark) have an update for us concenring your opinion. Cheers.
    19 Aug 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • I am not sure that there is any benefit to creditors in forcing them to seek bankruptcy at this time. Financing should be relatively cheap provided they can secure.

     

    Is there a spec buy here lol?
    19 Aug 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I agree. The call was certainly positive. I think there are several parties with a vested interest in giving them time to get through this period, including the bank and Mevion.

     

    Nice progress on the part of Len Anthony. I spoke to him as soon as Molinaro left. He's a big part of the reason I highlighted the stock at 40-cents. Here, at 55-cents, I think there's a solid balance of risk and reward.

     

    If nothing goes materially wrong, the stock should work.

     

    Gotta love these speculative plays!
    19 Aug 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » UPDATE: I thought the call went exceedingly well. We'll maintain our 20% bankruptcy risk-odds, but to honest I believe that Len is doing a great job and will see the company through to profitability within the next couple of quarters.

     

    It's been a wild ride, but the stock is doing very well relative to our initial 40-cent recommendation!
    20 Aug 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Mark,

     

    Whats your opinion about the volatility of future prospects for TPCS? It seems that TPCS has a lot of possibility, but most are sort of up in the area, in terms of boosting future revenue. Mevion needs for its technology to be successful on trial patients (3+ months off). GTAT may work with TPCS, but no deals yet. Naval and maritime are 2015 maybes, and the nuclear market seems to be up in the air too. There are a lot of 'maybe's here. Is that what has lowered your 'ten-bagger' estimate from 10% to 1%?

     

    Thanks for the updates,

     

    Aaron Rhodes
    21 Aug 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Their potential opportunities add up to a LOT of money. My optimism assumes that they will not get all of it (or even most). Our view on each opportunity hasn't changed. The 10-bagger decrease stems from the anticipation that a share offering or a higher-interest loan will be required, lowering potential EPS.

     

    Overall, I believe they will come through this rough patch and reward investors for it. Cheers.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Like your work, thank you; IF further dilution is a "probability"
    seems like new money can wait and see the offset of the +s of
    revenue & Mr Anthony vs the -s of dilution/debt.....

     

    cheers mate
    12 Sep 2013, 02:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Very astute observation. However, most investors already know this. Thus, it has already been reflected in the stock (witness the decline from $1 to $0.50) in my opinion.

     

    Without the financial stress, I believe this would be a $2 stock already. Too many things are pointing in the right direction. Again, this is just my opinion. We'll see how it plays out.

     

    Cheers!
    12 Sep 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Mark,

     

    I just noticed this piece of news from the Mevion website from the 22nd of Sept. It basically means that the S250 system has passed a major 3rd party inspection and has moved into clinical trials. Results should be quick.

     

    http://bit.ly/15MvSJa-

     

    I think that this is really positive news for TPCS, and could improve their ability to negotiate an appropriate financing deal. I wonder why hasn't this been noticed by the market by now? Will you update on this speculation in the future?
    2 Oct 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Aaron,

     

    If we saw it as an incremental (surprise) positive, we would have certainly tried to update folks on it. However, while good news, it was certainly expected.

     

    Some would even argue that it came a little later than expected. Nonetheless, it's good news, but not good enough to increase my positive thinking on TPCS. I still like and own the stock, but not any more so than I did before this news.

     

    They're making good progress though!

     

    Cheers,

     

    Mark G.
    2 Oct 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Mark,

     

    Any change in opinion on TPCS? I am considering buying more. It's looking attractive at 0.45
    Do you think the 0.8 million in contract losses reported on Q1 will be reported as revenue on Q2 and lead to a profit? I am seeing an estimate of EPS of +0.04 on TDAmeritrade. That could be huge, or is that priced in?

     

    Cheers,
    Aaron
    29 Oct 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Aaron,

     

    I try not to predict quarters. As for buying more, I can't advise you on that. Just remember that it's a speculative stock, so it make sense to be careful about how much we pour into it. The potential is great, but so is the risk. See my methodology section for more on this.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Mark G.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.