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Mark Gomes
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With over 20 years of professional experience, Mark Gomes is among the world's most experienced technology stock analysts. During his time as a contributor to Seeking Alpha, over 50% of his official picks were either acquired or tripled in value. Currently, Mr. Gomes is the CEO of Pipeline Data,... More
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PTT Research & Pipeline Data, LLC
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Poised To Triple
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Faster Than Forty
  • Transcript Of My Live Twitter Coverage Of ATTU's Q4 Call 6 comments
    Jan 30, 2014 7:33 PM | about stocks: ATTU

    I recommend that people Follow me on Twitter. One of the reasons is that I will occasionally use it to Tweet live comments during an earnings conference call. That's what I did (spontaneously) this morning with the ATTU call. Here's a "transcript":

    $ATTU beats on revenue and top end of guidance implies 46% y/y growth coming. Those are the key stats to focus on. Solid report!

    $ATTU 46% growth for 2014 implies back-to-envelope valuation of $180M. On the conf call now. CEO just said they are gaining Big Data share.

    $ATTU had a rough 2013, but strong Q4 growth and guidance. Anyone selling at these levels are paying attention to the wrong numbers.

    I just bought $ATTU at $9.61, $9.62, and $9.6896. CEO just reported having closed many deals already in Q1. CFO said "significant momentum"

    $ATTU stock now rebounding. I feel bad for investors who got "shaken out" (which I preach against) and sold to me at $9.61-$9.6896

    $ATTU costs up due adding sales & marketing because of the momentum and opportunity they see. Those expenses = 46% in Q4 vs 41% last year

    Investors who freaked out over the $ATTU EPS number obviously didn't look at the big jump in sales/marketing investments.

    Also, $ATTU license revenue up 61.5% SEQUENTIALLY (vs Q3) to $4.9M vs $3.0M. #delivering Stock now up 7% from this AM's knee jerk low.

    60-70% increase in $ATTU sales headcount. Some coming from competitors (who they met at competitive deals).

    Q4 was a record for revenue through partners. Partners bringing them into accounts and $ATTU = "critical enabler for their revenues" per CEO

    $ATTU added 10 sales people in Q4 and plan to hire more throughout 2014. Many more came from the Hayes acquisition.

    $ATTU Replicate was $2.4M of lic rev +140% y/y.

    $ATTU replaced a competitor at a "big bank"...most likely replaced GoldenGate, Datamirror, or $INFA

    $ATTU additional products in the works, as well as support for additional databases, including unstructured (perhaps $DWCH)?

    $ATTU beat rev ests even though some deals slipped into Q1. Also, they will announce a new product during the early part of Q2.

    $ATTU Replicate license rev expected to grow 60-70% and be the majority of license revenue...so their biggest piece will also grow fastest.

    Hopefully, the company's execution issues are behind it. Each quarter of 2013 saw those issues move from the front end of their sales pipeline to the back of it. This quarter, everything was smooth, except for a few orders that slipped into Q1...but that didn't stop them from beating their top line numbers. I see that as a good sign of things to come.

    Cheers.

    Disclosure: I am long ATTU.

    Stocks: ATTU
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Comments (6)
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  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Check out the Jan 31st PTT Insider for more on this!
    30 Jan, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • retpdguy
    , contributor
    Comments (168) | Send Message
     
    Bought more attu today. I knew you would find the silver lining. Care to comment on GLUU.
    30 Jan, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My comment above applies ;^)
    30 Jan, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Protect401K
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Total revenues for 2013 were $25.3 million, which were relatively flat compared to $25.5 million in 2012. This included license revenues, which decreased by 7% to $13.5 million in 2013, compared to $14.4 million in 2012.

     

    For a "growth" company in the hot "Big Data" market this company has yet to merit the hype you have tried to generate.

     

    What will the excuse be when they miss Q1 ?
    25 Feb, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2874) | Send Message
     
    Prote,

     

    Mark recommend this stock 2 years ago in the 4s I think your missing the big picture turnaround by looking at past performance. Think second half of 2014 and 2015 revenues. The stock is reflecting the future and likely will end up above $13 as another Triple. Every pull back along the way has been a great buy. And I would consider a reload if it pulls back and retests the $9 range as you might get another 50% out of this one still. Imho
    27 Feb, 03:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Protect,

     

    Will great respect to you, this topic has been addressed in my articles. Further, I respectfully submit that I have not been "attempting to generate hype". If I were, I might use this as an opportunity to regurgitate some previously stated facts (or fictions).

     

    If you check my track record and reputation, you will see that my postings are limited in number and purely focused on updated analyses.

     

    If you seek the source of ATTU's bullish stock action, understand that Q4 demonstrated great improvement, spurring Wall Street firms to initiate coverage on the stock. I recommend reading the earnings transcript and 10-Q, though I suspect an intelligent investor such as yourself has done this essential research already.

     

    I hope that helps.

     

    Best Wishes & Kindest Regards,

     

    Mark G.
    26 Feb, 10:56 AM Reply Like
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