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Mark Gomes
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  • Divergent: Lions Gate Weekend Updates 8 comments
    Mar 23, 2014 3:16 AM | about stocks: LGF

    After critics panned Divergent (leading to a 33% Rotten Tomatoes score), hopes for a strong opening weekend fell by the wayside. Shares of Lions Gate (NYSE:LGF) followed suit, dropping 12.3% last week. As we entered the weekend, Wall Street's $50+ million expectations were little more than a pipe dream.

    All the bad news weighed on Divergent like a real-life villain. As a result, the movie entered Saturday with a disappointing $22.8 million total. Some media outlets dropped their expectations as low as $40 million.

    However, the young ladies of American defied mainstream critics. Underground critics did as well. By Saturday night, its Rotten Tomatoes score had risen 8 points to 41% among critics. More importantly, its score among moviegoers had crept up to a massively divergent 81%.

    The rising tide showed through in the Saturday box office numbers -- just shy of $20 million, a heroic number for a flick that was left for dead just 24 hours earlier.

    Suddenly, $50 million appears feasible again. Divergent is Dauntless.

    We'll soon see if the latest Seeking Alpha analysis proves correct...

    Disclosure: I am long LGF.

    Stocks: LGF
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Comments (8)
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  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3145) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Exciting weekend...into the home stretch we go!
    23 Mar 2014, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3145) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Social media has shifted strongly in Divergent's favor. Just go to Twitter, do a search for "Divergent" and read a sampling of Tweets for yourself. #momentum
    23 Mar 2014, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • Hedge Fund of One
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
    Correct spelling to "Divergent" for the search and you'll get it. Also, huge activity on Twitter for hashtag #Divergent. Even a fair number of positive comments opposing the complaints in #DivergentMovieComplai... :-)
    23 Mar 2014, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3145) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I did ;) Thanks for the correction!
    23 Mar 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • swarrsd
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Divergent is heavily front loaded but has A cinema score which could help long run. They are predicting similar path the first Twilight. Look for $150 mil total and should do well oversees. Winter Solder two weeks out doesn't help but given production cost (~$80 mil), Divergent is a win for LGF
    23 Mar 2014, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3145) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Good post. I would only correct one thing -- reports regarding Saturday's performance are all saying that Divergent wasn't nearly as front-loaded as expected.


    Saturday was actually very strong, leading to a much better (and dominant) weekend than investors feared going into the weekend. Nice save for LGF :)
    23 Mar 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3145) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » The Wall Street Journal just made it official: "The action-thriller movie "Divergent" enjoyed a strong enough opening weekend that it is likely to become another young-adult franchise for Lions Gate" !



    Due diligence: 1
    Critics: 0

    23 Mar 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • thestockbroker
    , contributor
    Comments (607) | Send Message
    I began following and buying LGF @12-15 years ago when it was around $4-$5 and never moved, I saw the HUGE library they owned, were acquiring, and were building and was amazed that more folks didn't see it, especially the "anal-ists" on Wall & Broad. But patience has paid off very nicely and now every share I own has a cost basis of 0 fortunately most is in my IRA, but if content is still king, and it is, this stock will become a small part of a large company someday. Find them before everyone else does test your thesis regularly to make sure the game hasn't changed, and if it hasn't just be patient
    24 Mar 2014, 12:15 PM Reply Like
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