Mark Gomes'  Instablog

Mark Gomes
  • on Industrial Goods
Send Message
This profile, along with Mr. Gomes' investment methodology and article on "Tripling Your Money" (http://tinyurl.com/nx336wn) are required reading to understand how Mr. Gomes' researches and trades his picks. His updates are communicated via his Seeking Alpha Instablog/Articles/Comments and... More
My company:
Pipeline Data, LLC
My blog:
The Pipeline Data Newsletter
My book:
Faster Than Forty
  • Forget The Rhetoric - Check The Facts! 8 comments
    May 30, 2014 3:53 PM | about stocks: LIOX, STX, LGF, ATTU, FB, HIMX, TPCS, GSAT

    When someone tells you something negative about someone else, how do you know whether to believe them or not?

    Simple. Just check the facts. Here are ours:

    • Most of our selections continue to rise after they graduate.
    • 10 of our 19 former selections (53%) graduated as 200% gainers (triples)
    • The remaining 9 "losers" were expelled with an average return of 2%
    • Net-net, our average has risen 93%, but that only tells half the story
    • Our "Core" picks have averaged 119%
    • 62% of our Core picks have tripled
    • Our Speculative picks (weighted at 10% of our Core selections) have averaged 52%
    • 33% of our Speculative picks have tripled
    • Of our 10 total stocks that tripled, eight have set higher 52-week highs this year
    • Their average peak-ROI is 319%

    Company
    (Click for Article)
    Ticker Date Initial Price Graduation Price ROI Subsequent High ROI
    Lionbridge LIOX 1/20/2009 1.23 3.69 200% $7.50 510%
    Seagate STX 11/11/2011 17.94 53.82 200% $62.76 250%
    Lions Gate LGF 3/20/2012 12.14 36.42 200% $37.81 211%
    Attunity ATTU 4/27/2012 3.36 10.08 200% $12.00 257%
    Facebook FB 10/29/2012 18.06 54.18 200% $72.59 302%
    Himax HIMX 3/4/2013 3.44 10.32 200% $16.15 369%
    TechPrecision TPCS 7/11/2013 0.40 1.20 200% $1.35 238%
    Globalstar GSAT 8/25/2013 0.67 2.01 200% $3.40 411%

    Source: PoisedToTriple.com

    As you can see, we've provided great short-term (one year or less) picks, as well as established picks with great long-term performance.

    Anyone can belittle an analyst when the market is down, especially if their audience isn't looking at the facts. See our complete track record at the PoisedToTriple website. Then, check out our Methodology to see how our picks attain success. Thanks!

    Stocks: LIOX, STX, LGF, ATTU, FB, HIMX, TPCS, GSAT
Back To Mark Gomes' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (8)
Track new comments
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It's been a tough couple of months, but if you make money every month for 12 months a year, congrats.

     

    My goal is to make money each year, by buying hated stocks that shouldn't be. It's hard to suffer through the jeers, but you can't beat the averages by doing what everyone else does. Have to swim against the tide.

     

    The real measure of success is how you do over time.

     

    Cheers!
    30 May 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Impressive how you get pretty darn close to subsequent highs. Also for full disclosure you may have want to put in buy/sell dates and current pps into your table; imho.

     

    As you know many followers get greedy and try to top tick their sales. Thus lots of people will ride winners back down into mediocre returns (or worse).
    30 May 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I actually don't get close at all (and if I did, it would be suspicious) The average peak-ROI was 319% for those picks, so I left an average of 119% on the table. That's a lot!

     

    As for top-tickers, I can't help people who are greedy or don't stick to my Methodology. If an investor does better than the annual 40% it delivers, they don't need me (and I tip my hat to them). ;)
    30 May 2014, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Seagate, Lions Gate, Attunity, and Techprecision are prime examples of why people should stick with your exits. Any that didn't likely underperformed. Heck, I'd think all of them are now under your exits thus it pays to have a plan.
    30 May 2014, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right. Note that two of those four companies are very large and well known. I'm sure they will do well for long-term investors. However, when you tripled in a short span, it doesn't leave a lot of room for upside.

     

    Indeed, most of picks graduate around the same time they hit the top of my risk/reward channels.

     

    Of course, a lot of investors focus on 1) the very short-term, 2) trading, and 3) technical analysis, while I focus on 1) the intermediate-term 2) investing, and 3) risk/reward charting.

     

    VERY different. Thus, those who don't read/follow my methodology are prone to get burned, especially if they're buying near the peaks (when Wall Street analysts start covering them and the hype gets loudest).

     

    Winning in investing requires the opposite.
    30 May 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I can certainly provide buy/sell dates. We have that info and the back-up (date of 200% return or article waving the white flag), but I don't get as wrapped up in stats as most.

     

    What matters to me is making correct long-term calls, no matter how long they take to unfold: http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 May 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • 12466231
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Claiming a success for TPCS seems crazy. That company is a basket case and hasn't demonstrated any real success like PXLW or GLUU. Any success there is literally a pump based on your following. You can clearly see the price movement based on your recommendation. All the picks since this one have been OTC with massive risk. I don't think I'm the only person put off by this strategy. I won't consider any membership until picks are companies with real financial controls as NASDAQ has. I love your picks and have bought several. I'm just not going to buy a membership if all the recent picks are OTC stocks with massive risk. I have made money from your advice and you can't argue with free just saying I'm never going to buy a membership when the stocks are all OTC. I've lost quite a bit of money in UK with AIM stocks which are similar in being almost crooks how the businesses are run. I would be more impressed if you didn't pump success for TPCS which is just crap. It may end up well but that is when you should take credit. Not taking credit for a micro cap that gets a massive pump. I'm not saying it was a scam just the results so far are pathetic and not based on any real value.
    23 Jun 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Gomes
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 12466231,

     

    You make a very astute point. Indeed, I agree.

     

    However, keep in mind that TPCS has remained high above my initiation price despite the fact that nobody speaks of it anymore (it graduated from our coverage). In my opinion, this is because its price is not based on a P/E, but rather the weighted-average probability of several possible outcomes for its business).

     

    I selected GSAT for the same reason and the stock is now 500%-600% above my initiation price with clear validation from numerous Wall Street institutions (which incidentally makes me less interested in the stock now). If you don't align yourself with that particular method of investing, I respect that 100%. Not all methods are meant for all people.

     

    Indeed, I utilize a number of methods (arbitrage, strategic value, weighted-average probabilities, and of course DCF). No matter what, it is generally impossible to determine with 100% surety whether a stock goes up for speculative or fundamental reasons (and to what degree).

     

    This is why I personally don't care about my Performance Tracker. What's more important to me is whether or not my actual research is superior. In that regard, I pride myself on my 20+ year reputation for strong research theses and making specific (and often seemingly-outlandish) predictions that actually prove to be true (like HIMX winning GOOG or PXLW winning AAPL).

     

    To be sure, I'm not always right. My goal is quite-modestly to be right just 50% of the time, but with losses only losing 20-30% and winners making multiple-100s. The result is and extraordinarily high average return.

     

    In short, I agree with you. Success is never purely measured in numbers (numbers are merely how people attempt to make sense out of chaos). Thus, in order to truly judge my past to the fullest extent, an investor must probably study my past in meticulous qualitative detail to decide whether or not my product is worth paying for.

     

    Surely, I should not be solely judged for my single greatest selection, nor my single most suspect.

     

    In short, if you decide against doing business with me because TPCS is counted among my many winning selections, I respect your decision 100%.

     

    Indeed, I respect the right for all human beings to choose their paths... it leaves me to simply do what I do (and love) best -- picking stocks as I see them.

     

    Best Wishes On Your Path & Kindest Regards,

     

    Mark G.
    24 Jun 2014, 11:31 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.