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Tony Roylance
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I am a St. Louis-based independent and fee-only Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). My passion is market research and strategy development. I look forward to talking with other investors and traders. I am always up for a chat about the market, feel free to contact me at... More
My company:
MCR Capital Management
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MCR Capital Management
  • 401ktactical.com 2 comments
    Dec 3, 2013 9:58 AM | about stocks: IWM, SPY

    Several of my articles have had readers ask me more about the technical, economic, and market indicators that I use in my analysis of the markets. I have therefore created a very basic site to share some of that information. I like to keep all things cash-flow neutral so there is a subscription portion for the latest information, but I will be adding a lot of free content as well. I hope you find it useful, and I love talking about the market, so if anyone has any questions or comments feel free to send me an email or message.

    As far as the market is concerned, I'm watching a divergence closely. The Russell 2000 underlying components are not confirming the upward movement in the index. I view this as a warning sign that I'm monitoring closely. It's not a sell signal just yet, but could evolve into one. I imagine that the next market correction will begin with selling in the small caps and that might already be upon us.

    The only positive catalyst I see are the multitude of Federal Reserve POMO days in the month of December. Today is a big one with over $5 Billion being monetized. If we have a strongly negative day in spite of that amount of inflow, that will also be a very negative sign.

    Good luck trading.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, MDY.

    Stocks: IWM, SPY
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Comments (2)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the thoughts! I'll be checking in... also reading the details on the indicators as I get time.

     

    I didn't go in on the last couple down days, including today. This down feels different than the prior. I'm sure there'll be up days, but maybe it's reaching a dip? I did leave what's in, in.

     

    Also wondering how the investing mood's dependence on the word taper will impact your indicators. Like today was driven by news, first on good or bad economics means the opposite for tapering, then on possible budget agreements. Actual fundamentals like POMO amounts seemed to have little to do with it.
    4 Dec 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tony Roylance
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi LMH, I'm sorry I didn't see this comment until today! That's strange...not sure why I wasn't notified. Luckily, what I have discovered is that tracking flows of money into and out of the markets are what determines whether they go up or down. How, or why, really does not matter. If big investors feel that Fed action (POMO's, reserve requirements, etc) are going to be negative, they will begin to pull out and my indicators will catch it. If the big investors don't think it's a big deal even though the evening news and others are panicked about "tapering", they will sit tight, and my indicators won't get triggered. Therefore, follow the money! Or me, because as a follower of mine from near the beginning LMH, I'll tell you. And my subscribers...But you don't have to subscribe. ;)
    22 Jan, 02:26 PM Reply Like
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