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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Trends Confirm Tom DeMark's Crash Call 7 comments
    Feb 5, 2014 9:55 AM | about stocks: DIA

    Tom DeMark has been warning about a crash since last October, and he was on CNBC this morning reiterating his concern as the charts have played out exactly as he expected during the October-Jan rally, and the subsequent reversal.

    The chart below is how the Dow Industrials stand after Monday's pummeling.

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Everything but munis, US bonds, and gold are now in downtrends, including the all important yen carry trade, which is what one would expect to see if Tom DeMark 1929 repeat is correct.

    Trends: semis -, transports -, small caps -, energy -, China -, gold +, UK -, financials -, copper -, high yield -, munis +, US bonds +, emerging markets -, Yen carry trade -

    I am looking for a short term bounce to alleviate the short term oversold condition - probably to the 50 day moving averages for the indexes, similar to the bounce shown above - though the stock market would look dire after that, with any failure to muster a rally now even more dire, if that's possible.

    f you would like to track updates on the charts shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months access to my on-line newsletter for free!

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in QID over the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: DIA
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Comments (7)
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  • Rock228
    , contributor
    Comments (571) | Send Message
     
    How do you get a crash while economy is expanding? I suppose first you have to define crash - 40%, 50% down? When we do crash it will be spectacular but I don't think we are there yet.

     

    This article seems to say the opposite as Tom DeMark.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Feb, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Kevin Wilde
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » History shows crashes are about forced selling due to over-leveraged positions being blown away by a surprise break of a support level. Margin debt and investor sentiment shows we are in such a position, so too the position of my bull/bear cycle indicator. I will update that DeMark chart later this week, but it seems to me that today leaves the Dow Industrials in prime position to start the crash phase. The forecast from that chart calls for a rapid descent to the 2011 lows, from where the rally began.
    19 Feb, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Dightman
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    From your post, "Everything but munis, US bonds, and gold are now in downtrends, including..."

     

    Really, how about the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX), would you consider those stocks in a downtrend?

     

    The semi's ($SOX) hit a level of 560 yesterday, their highest level since 2002!

     

    Some of your other broad trend characterizations are also questionable. For example small-caps ($RUT) have taken out short-term resistance at 1,145. Energy ($SPEN) has rallied back to the 50dma over the last two weeks.

     

    I appreciate what you are trying to do but it appears to me some of what you have shared in this post is incorrect.
    19 Feb, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin Wilde
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My strategy is based on the NASDAQ, which of course the NASDAQ 100 closely tracks. All the others that I mentioned - which I do every Friday in my newsletter - are intended to give an overview of rally confirmation or non-confirmation. Thus the opening statement in that newsletter showed the NASDAQ remained in buy mode - which it has been since late 2013 - thus no need to add it to the list of the others. Note, also, this is the opinion - trend either in buy mode or sell mode - based on MY trend indicators. RUT and energy remains in sell mode as of today, while the chart I just posted shows semis and summation indexes the lone confirmers of the current rally to new highs for the NASDAQ.
    19 Feb, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Dightman
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    My mistake Kevin. I misread the date on your post. I thought it was from today. I believe your comments were very reasonable back on Feb 5th when you originally posted.
    19 Feb, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • propicker
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    perma bear
    15 May, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin Wilde
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I go long - leveraged long - when stock market trends turn positive, though the bear potential is much greater at this juncture than the bull, due to five year of bull, and bears follow bull just as bull follows bear. Very few people learn that, especially the perma bulls, which outnumber the bears by 100 to 1.
    16 May, 09:28 AM Reply Like
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