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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Moment Of Truth For The 1929 Crash Pattern 2 comments
    Feb 20, 2014 1:51 PM | about stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ

    The drop from the peak and subsequent rebound rally so far matches the 1929 experience closely, using 2X beta adjustment for the current Dow.

    The red numbers on right at the 2014 Dow targets if we continue down the crash path.

    Yesterday's pullback from peak lines up perfectly with the 1929 experience, and that pattern calls for an acceleration of the selling from this position.

    While I believe it is fine for skeptics to scoff at such comparisons - while the trend remains up, as it currently does - I think great caution is warranted if the slide resumes and the trend turns negative.

    Following the trend is the most effective way of ensuring one is positioned on the right side of all the big moves, whether that is an acceleration to the upside, or down into crashing misery.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ
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Comments (2)
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  • Master Che
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    Good research

     

    I completely agree that this is a bear rally although this bear rally will be quite different in scope and depth than the 29-37 move, it will be much more profound (larger) in light of the information super highway....
    27 Feb 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Kevin Wilde
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree the potential is certainly there for the next bear to morph into something quite terrible, though we are getting way too head of ourselves till we see signs of the big win that confirms the bull/bear cycle has turned from the former to the latter.
    28 Feb 2014, 08:59 AM Reply Like
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