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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at and a Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Where Have All The Bears Gone? 2 comments
    Mar 12, 2014 8:35 AM | about stocks: QQQ

    The trend momentum power rating remains a mediocre 50% bull, as the number of bear at investor intelligence survey hits the lowest level ever, smack in-line for the five year anniversary the bull market. Note the super high number of bears going into the 2009 lows, exactly the opposite of what we have now.

    (click to enlarge)

    No change to the overall technical set-up, which remains very risky to be heavily invested on the long side, with the current optimal investment 50% long due to the trend being up, while the intermediate term, the short term, and investor sentiment remain in the negative sell camp.

    The next significant development from the AK indicators is an expected negative turn for the hedging indicator later this week. When that happens I will buy TZA with 10% of portfolio values.

    The next significant development after that, if the weakness continues, is the trend trading indicator in the next chart moving closer to the low risk - entry - line, which would be my cue to move long exposure from 50% long to 100% (hedged with TZA.)

    On the major news front, we have the Crimea referendum vote on the 16th, which brings into question what the Ukraine military will do if voters elect to join Russia.

    Three days later we will likely get the third bond tapering move from the FED, which potentially brings a Martin Zweig "three move and a stumble" transition from bull to bear.

    I remain 50% long QQQ here, looking to increase exposure on an expected dip, and ready to go aggressively short if the two green lines for the NASDAQ trend turn negative, something they did not do all of last year.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.


    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Stocks: QQQ
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Comments (2)
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  • Regarded Solutions
    , contributor
    Comments (20531) | Send Message

    12 Mar 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Master Che
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
    Still too early and keep your powder dry, although we're short (ESH14 swing) from friday morning and will be taking profit at 1851.00 - long (trend trade) from 8-11/2011 - added (40%) in 6/2012 and 11/2012 - (updated and in the SA archives) although at 16588 will take profit on 75% and will be hedging the remainder...


    You have to be careful to commit serious funds to the short side based on sell signals, because this market is manipulated, mathematically speaking (developed theorems as such) and will continue upward as such; my work points to 1930/1940 on the SPX as a potential trend termination level, although put the sell signals and other emotional luggage on the sidelines and wait for the move back up (2nd movement) to the potential top in order to commit funds (other peoples money)
    12 Mar 2014, 09:05 AM Reply Like
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