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My Apple Q1 Earnings Estimates

|Includes:Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Hi all,

AAPL

Well I thought I'd have a bit of fun and give forecasting tonight's
report a go. Here are my forecasts, both a Bear and Bull case. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts before and after the big event.

I am naturally cautious and probably biased towards the bears and this is reflected in my forecast, however note that this mostly stems from reductions in ASPs and light iPad sales as opposed to being outright bearish about iPhone units. In fact, my iPhone numbers are on the high side of consensus.

My thoughts are that we will see strong unit sales of iPhones but a
disappointing ASP due to shift in mix (trend towards lower memory devices). I think we see light iPad sales due to a drop-off in the 9'7 form factor supplemented by Mini sales of around 7-10m units. ASPs will suffer accordingly.

Overall I am more confident in my Bull Case forecast, but due to
the unprecedented uncertainty and media noise cannot rule out either a consensus miss or indeed a potential blow out ($15+) if margins and ASPs surprise.

Good luck everyone tonight. Apple the company is not dead yet, far from it. Apple the stock is a different question and it is a lottery which way things will go. I am expecting a half decent report will see a strong bounce but I am mostly in cash as there are just too many factors at play here.

Regardless, soon we will know if Apple is still investable or not, and in some ways it will be a great relief to just know one way or the other!

Apple Q1 2013 Earnings Forecast

Apple's Forecast

Revenue $52,000
EPS $11.75

Consensus Rev $54,560
Consensus EPS $13.31

Q1 2012 EPS $13.87
--------------------------------------------------------

David Room Bear Case Forecast

iPads 20.5m $495 $10,148
iPods 14m $155 $2,170
Macs 5.1m $1260 $6,426
iPhone 50m $595 $29,750
iTunes $2,500
Peripherals $690
Software $880

Total (Revenue) $52,564

Gross Margin (38.5) $20,237
Opex $4,150
Op Income $16,087
OI&E $420
Net before tax $15,667
Taxes (25.5%) $3,995
Net income $11,672

EPS $12.34

Outstanding shares 946

-----------------------------------------------------
Forecasting 1.1% Revenue beat; 5.0% EPS beat

TTM EPS Falls to $42.63 from $44.16

PPS @ 10.0x = $426.30
PPS @ 10.5x = $447.62
PPS @ 11.0x = $468.93
PPS @ 11.5x = $490.25
PPS @ 12.0x = $511.56
PPS @ 12.5x = $532.88
PPS @ 13.0x = $554.19
PPS @ 14.0x = $596.82

David Room Bull Case Forecast

iPads 22m $500 $11,000
iPods 15m $155 $2,325
Macs 5.2m $1260 $6,552
iPhone 56m $600 $33,600
iTunes $2,500
Peripherals $700
Software $900

Total (Revenue) $57,577

Gross Margin (39%) $22,455
Opex $4,050
Op Income $18,405
OI&E $400
Net before tax $18,005
Taxes (25.5%) $4,591
Net income $13,414

EPS $14.18

Outstanding shares 946

-----------------------------------------------------
Forecasting 10.7% Revenue beat; 20.6% EPS beat

TTM EPS Rises to $44.47 from $44.16

PPS @ 10.0x = $444.47
PPS @ 10.5x = $466.94
PPS @ 11.0x = $489.17
PPS @ 11.5x = $511.40
PPS @ 12.0x = $533.64
PPS @ 12.5x = $555.88
PPS @ 13.0x = $578.11
PPS @ 14.0x = $622.58

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Stocks: AAPL