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Austin Lehman
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I worked at Ernst & Young in Audit, focusing primarily on real estate companies. I now work at a local public accounting firm in Indianapolis, IN. I focus primarily on small cap companies with few analysts following them, as I believe individual investors may be able to compete at the small cap... More
  • News and Q2 predictions 0 comments
    Jun 27, 2011 7:50 AM | about stocks: CLCT, JPM, LULU, EXLS, VSEC, CNU, HUM

    Wow, huge news for CNU today!!! Values the company at 6.45/share. The acquisition makes sense for MDF as well: Bought CNU at 14.6 forward P/E and 1.1 forward annual revenue (based on my expectation of .44 EPS and $335M of sales for year ending 6/30/11). I would expect MDF to trade at 12 times 12/31/11 earnings due to its diversification of earnings from this transaction. I expect 12/31/11 EPS to be around .76, ignoring one time transaction costs. This values the company around $9/share, obviously with more risk due to it using debt for a large portion of the acquisition. Still, though, as they alluded to in the press release and as Wellpoint showed in their acquisition of Caremore, this does appear to be the industry to be in over the next 5-10 years.
    This also reminds me why I was not listening to Zack's, who had them on a downtrend alert and illustrates to me the shortfalls of purely technical trading.
    A few more random thoughts:
    CLCT- I expect CLCT's stock price to drop when 6/30/11 earnings are released and its P/E resets to around 20 (.76 EPS at current stock price), the change in P/E is due to tax credits taken in the prior year whereas none will be taken in the current year. The company continues to perform well but a 20 P/E may be high/
    VSEC- I am looking forward to reading its terms of financing.
    JPM- still waiting for banks to recover...
    LULU- growth expectations have not changed significantly. I believe there is not a ton of upside at the current price but that its price will not drop until its growth expectations drop, which could still be a year or 2 away.
    EXLS- would like to jump in around $22/share. High growth company that has been performing well.

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