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Michael Blair
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I retired as CEO of an Automotive Parts supplier, and manage an investment portfolio for myself and family. I have a BA in History from Royal Military College of Canada and an MBA from the University of Western Ontario. My first career was as a fighter pilot in the RCAF, and, following my MBA I... More
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  • Q1 Is Over And It Is Time To Review The Bidding  8 comments
    Apr 2, 2014 12:20 PM | about stocks: AAPL, BNEFF, CP, CRM, INTC, MU, PGH, PWE, QCOM, WHR

    The first quarter is over and it is time to review the bidding. Of my eleven bearish calls three did not work out all that well but in total the short names returned 3.9% for the quarter. In a bull market I normally expect to take a bath on my shorts.

    The bullish calls also missed on four of thirteen names but even with those misses the long names were up 14.1% for the quarter.

    (click to enlarge)

    My view is that the market is near a top and will roll over some time in the next several quarters with a fair degree of volatility in the meantime. In that environment I stay liquid, keep a reasonably large short book and concentrate my long holdings in companies where my confidence level is high and their valuations appear low in relation to the market.

    Today, I am short CP (NYSE:CP), Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) while I am long Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Pengrowth (NYSE:PGH), Penn West (NYSE:PWE) and Bonterra (OTC:BNEFF) from the list above. I do have other investments not mentioned in this article both public and private.

    I urge readers to stay conservative, stay diversified and seek professional advice when putting their money at risk. Stock markets do not always provide pleasant outcomes.

    Disclosure: I am long INTC, MU, PGH, PWE, BNEFF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: I am short CRM, WHR, AAPL, QCOM and CP

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Comments (8)
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  • Tom Shaughnessy
    , contributor
    Comments (1144) | Send Message
    Thanks for the re-cap and you calls Michael!
    2 Apr 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • embryorambo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
    Short CP? Seems more oil then ever is traveling on their rails no? the rest of your calls i like very much
    2 Apr 2014, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Bert Andrews
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
    Michael, do you have a near term downside target on AAPL, or basing your decision on post-earnings reaction? Or contextual based on overall market direction?
    7 Apr 2014, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Blair
    , contributor
    Comments (5097) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » @Bert Andrews - I see the stock falling into the low $400's over the next couple of quarters if I am anywhere close in my forecasts of iPhone sales.
    7 Apr 2014, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2753) | Send Message
    "into the low $400's"


    Where do you think Apple's repurchasing prices are at?
    7 Apr 2014, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Blair
    , contributor
    Comments (5097) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Sam


    Likely paying about $510 to $525 based on the timing.


    7 Apr 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2753) | Send Message
    Dear Mr Blair:


    QCOM has come out with a more superb chip than the A7.


    The overall market is overvalued, but IT seems to be re-valueing well.


    After underestimating Lenovo with my Western thinking. I feel Jack Ma (Alibaba) will not be sold IPO short. So I feel I can relax for a couple of months, though I have limit-sell orders for QCOM and MSFT.


    I think QCOM will do an AAPL (2003-2012)!


    Any thoughts?
    8 Apr 2014, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Blair
    , contributor
    Comments (5097) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Samuel


    The new Qualcomm 810 is very impressive. At the same time Allwinner and Mediatek are taking big bites out of the lower end of the market and growth is slowing. I am short QCOM but admit it could trade higher.


    8 Apr 2014, 05:21 AM Reply Like
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