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Jon Springer
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I studied political philosophy in college at the London School of Economics. I have experience in trust banking. I have been published in the UB Post, Forbes Asia, and on Seeking Alpha. Frontier and emerging markets research and writing is my work. Sri Lanka and Mongolia are the primary focus of... More
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  • Vietnam, Close To Bottom? 34 comments
    Nov 23, 2012 11:15 AM | about stocks: VNM

    I received the below alert in my e-mail today from Seeking Alpha. For readers interested in more on Vietnam, at this time I'd recommend checking out the work of Peter Pham and Futures Asia. There may be other authors on Vietnam on Seeking Alpha, but those are the two I know.

    The update below suggests thing are getting bad. Maybe they're getting close to bottom? I know a few people have suggested I put Vietnam on my list of places to go soon because they think it is getting near a bottom and that stocks there are cheap. All below this line is from my e-mail in box via Seeking Alpha:

    8:23 AM Is a bell ringing in Vietnam? The country's largest investment fund is closing shop 5 years after its launch coincided with the stock market's peak. The Ho Chi Minh Index has lost more than 60% of its value since the SSI Vision Fund opened for business, and its investors want what's left of their money back. VNM -1.6% Y/Y. (Read the comments on this)

    See more Market Currents on Global & FX

    Stocks: VNM
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Comments (23)
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  • John Polomny
    , contributor
    Comments (584) | Send Message
     
    I think it is near a bottom and have been buying shares of the Vietnam Opportunity Fund at an approximate 50% discount to NAV. Plus the management continues to buy back undervalued shares. A long term contrarian play in my view.

     

    http://bit.ly/Tjoq5m
    23 Nov 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JS,
    I am of an age that has a hard time thinking about investing in Vietnam. I do not wish the country any harm and in fact wish them well and hope they prosper. For me there are too many mental scars.
    23 Nov 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I understand SD. Though, by all accounts the folks their have embraced capitalism quite well now

     

    In any case, while I may make a trip to Vietnam in the spring, I'm hoping to work out a trip to Bangladesh, a 2nd trip to Sri Lanka, and a trip to either Nepal or Bhutan this summer.

     

    By all means skip over my chatter on this topic.
    2 Dec 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    JS,
    I will still follow what you write about Nam, maybe this is part of the healing process?
    3 Dec 2012, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SD,

     

    The only thing I know with certainty about healing processes is that they're unique, and personal, for each person. There are no rules.

     

    If I can be helpful in any way along your way, let me know.
    3 Dec 2012, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    A moment of silence is in the schedule today to mark the 40th anniversary of when the guns were supposed to cease their fire.
    http://bit.ly/14nXRzg;st1=
    27 Jan 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From Market Currents today:

     

    9:11 PM Vietnam's PMI moves into expansion territory for the first time in 14 months, rising to 50.5 in November from 48.7 previously. The improvement looks to have come from domestic demand as new export order volumes continue to contract. "We expect a gradual pick-up of economic activity supported by both domestic demand and a gradual recovery in China," says HSBC. (Read the comments on this)
    2 Dec 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Bespoke estimates that the VNM is very overbought right now.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jan 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks VB. I think the play continues to be Vietnam Opportunity Fund as John Polomny noted in his year-end review http://bit.ly/UCG1rw
    9 Jan 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • finfreed
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    could be but on rsi chart over bought
    9 Jan 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Cam Rahn Bay is Vietnam's sheltered, deepwater port located next to the main trans- global shipping lanes going through the South China Sea. The facilities there are being upgraded with foreign ships now being allowed into the harbor. It might be more in the news in the future.
    http://bit.ly/13jJ1KN
    http://bit.ly/UCVAKu
    If the bay weren't so militarized, I will almost think that the small cities located on the bayshore have the potential to become a great city similar to Hong Kong at some future date. The Ba Ngoi port at the north end of the bay handles the commercial traffic; maybe that will be a growth hot spot.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam cuts a deal with foreign investors to refine oil in order to meet domestic demand for petroleum.
    http://bit.ly/SVdADB
    27 Jan 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam has another deal in the works for refining its oil reserves.
    http://bit.ly/18VpDXd
    http://bit.ly/10GnpDF
    Vietnam has considerable oil and gas reserves which will support the economy for years to come.
    http://1.usa.gov/18VpDXf
    http://english.pvn.vn
    19 May 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam, the country on the other side of China from Japan, is the first country visited by the new Japanese Prime Minister. The visit comes at a time when there is friction between Japan and China over a few islands located near Taiwan. Both China and Japan need to have peaceful economic development in East Asia in order to continue their own economic progress.
    http://bit.ly/XFqHVI
    http://bit.ly/WjBicj
    28 Jan 2013, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam's trade with Japan has been increasing in recent years. The two countries have a formal economic partnership.
    http://bit.ly/X6CJZP
    http://bit.ly/SY3QZd
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    http://bit.ly/X6CJZR
    28 Jan 2013, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    There are more business stories about the economic ties between the two countries. Vietnam has considerable appeal to the Japanese business community as an investment destination.
    http://bit.ly/Wa1CGT
    http://bit.ly/X6E96L
    http://bit.ly/Wa1CX9
    http://bit.ly/X6E96P
    http://bit.ly/Wa1A1q
    http://bit.ly/X6E9n6
    28 Jan 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam is halfway to India from Japan. Vietnam's improving trade with India speaks to Vietnam's strategic trading position on the central edge of the Asian continent.
    http://bit.ly/16I6R6q
    http://bit.ly/115b37N
    19 May 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Here are some detailed explanations of Vietnam's economy with lots of newsy graphs and charts.
    http://bit.ly/113FMI8
    http://bit.ly/YaVn44
    http://bit.ly/113FLDU
    http://bit.ly/YaVn45
    http://bit.ly/113FLDW
    http://vietpartners.com
    28 Jan 2013, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    More economic reports indicate the current situation and outlook.
    http://bit.ly/Wa4VxF
    http://bit.ly/14oFydn
    http://bit.ly/Wa4Slw
    A list of trade shows suggest the extent of Vietnam's economic diversification.
    http://bit.ly/YyA405
    28 Jan 2013, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    A look through AmCham's presentations about investing in Vietnam yields some interesting insights about the country.
    http://bit.ly/YxogoN
    26 Feb 2013, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam is a central oceanside location between the huge markets of China, Japan and Korea to its north and the large markets of Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia to its south. The country is in a prime position to attract more oceanic trade now that the country is more economically astute. This should be positive news for the Asian shipping industry so long as the South China Sea remains at peace.
    http://bit.ly/X3LkLp
    28 Jan 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    A couple of new seaports have opened on Vietnamese coast with expectations of more trading activities to come.
    http://bit.ly/UZqWRk
    http://bit.ly/Y72nhx
    http://bit.ly/UZqUsQ
    11 Feb 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam's central oceanside location enables it to trade with its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) in a substantial kind of way. There is much more news about Vietnam's economy to be learned by following those trade connections.
    http://bit.ly/15YTmQf
    http://bit.ly/13z2x2P
    Vietnam also controls the mouth of the mighty Mekong River. And, because of that geographic circumstance, the country is working on improving the trade links happening along the river.
    http://bit.ly/15YTmQj
    http://bit.ly/13z2x2R
    19 May 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Saigon, now called Ho Chi Minh City, has the largest port complex in Vietnam. It is located close by the main shipping lanes of the South China Sea yet located far enough inland from the coast to allow for shelter from the worst tropical storms. The city is also near the Mekong River Delta allowing for easy access to the multinational Mekong Region trading corridors.
    http://bit.ly/1155BSn
    http://bit.ly/11P4w8Q
    http://bit.ly/1155BSp
    19 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Haiphong has the largest port serving northern Vietnam. Haiphong is at the junction between Vietnam's coastside trading corridor and the inland corridor connecting Vietnam with the resource rich mountainous regions of China.
    http://bit.ly/11Pa5Em
    http://bit.ly/1158zX6
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    http://bit.ly/11Pa7Mj
    19 May 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam's PMI holding steady for now during the global sluggishness.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    This is a list of industry sectors in which Vietnam needs to trade in for expanding its economy according to American trade officials.
    http://1.usa.gov/Y6Zbmb
    11 Feb 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam is working on attracting American investment to its industry sectors.
    http://bit.ly/YT1bS8
    http://bit.ly/14kCK14
    http://bit.ly/YT1bSa
    19 May 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam is a leading rice exporter, often second to Thailand by volume. The rice exports are an important factor underpinning the country's economy.
    http://bit.ly/14H5QpE
    http://bit.ly/16hiNKo
    9 Mar 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam provides a key coastside link in the Southeast Asian land based transport network.
    http://bit.ly/11P7biX
    http://bit.ly/1156ZVd
    http://bit.ly/11P7bj0
    http://bit.ly/14Fsn7N
    Vietnam keeps upgrading its network of roads and railways.
    http://bit.ly/11P7bzi
    http://bit.ly/11571MT
    http://bit.ly/11P7cU7
    http://bit.ly/11570bu
    19 May 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam is early in the process of industrializing its economy. The country has founded many industrial parks with the idea that it can build a thriving industrial base. Vietnam might have less of a need to import manufactured items as it strengthens its industrial capacity over time.
    http://bit.ly/18CJsBt
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    http://bit.ly/141Uxer
    http://bit.ly/18CJr0x
    http://bit.ly/141Uxev
    31 May 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Their industrial parks are well represented.
    http://bit.ly/103dlL2
    9 Jun 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam's nuclear agreement with the United States should improve its energy capacity.
    http://bit.ly/1hw50nc
    http://bit.ly/1hw50nf
    25 Feb 2014, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here's an interview that I just posted with Vietnam Opportunity Fund, an interesting mixed composition closed-end fund:
    http://onforb.es/1c61YbI
    25 Feb 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
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