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EysteinH
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Norwegian. Master degree in psychology. Currently studying law and working part time. Interested in stock Analyst work.
  • Updateded Estimates For Cashflow REC Q1 2013 Until Q2 2014 0 comments
    Apr 13, 2013 9:32 AM

    REC ASP per quarter for modules:
    q12013: 0,73 $ per watt
    q22013: 0,74 $ per watt
    q32013: 0,73 $ per watt
    q42013: 0,72 $ per watt
    q12014: 0,71 $ per watt
    q22014: 0,70 $ per watt

    Rec EBITDA cost per quarter (module cash cost +sg&a & r&d per watt):
    q12013: 0,71 $ per watt (0,61 + 0,08) @ profit 2 cents per watt
    q22013: 0,66 $ per watt (0,58 + 0,08) @ profit 8 cents per watt
    q32013: 0,63 $ per watt (0,55 + 0,08) @ profit 10 cents per watt
    q42013: 0,60 $ per watt (0,52 + 0,08) @ profit 12 cents per watt
    q12014: 0,58 $ per watt (0,50 + 0,08) @ profit 15 cents per watt
    q22014: 0,55 $ per watt (0,47 + 0,08) @ profit 15 cents per watt

    REC MW shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
    q12013: 213 MW shipped @ 4,26 million $ profit
    q22013: 213 MW shipped @ 17,04 million $ profit
    q32013: 213 MW shipped @ 21,3 million $ profit
    q42013: 213 MW shipped @ 25,56 million $ profit
    q12014: 235 MW shipped @ 35,25 million $ profit
    q22014: 235 MW shipped @ 35,25 million $ profit
    Total 138,66 million $ ~ 794 million nok

    REC ASP per quarter for fbr polysilicon:
    q12013: 17,29 $ per kg
    q22013: 19,00 $ per kg
    q32013: 19,00 $ per kg
    q42013: 23,00 $ per kg
    q12014: 23,00 $ per kg
    q22014: 23,00 $ per kg

    REC FBR EBITDA cost per quarter (polysilicon cash cost + sg&a & r&d per kg)
    q12013: 15 $ per kg (12,0 + 3) @ profit 2,29 $ per kg
    q22013: 14,5 $ per watt (11,5 + 3) @ profit 4,5 $ per kg
    q32013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 5 $ per kg
    q42013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg
    q12014: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg
    q22014: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg

    REC FBR MT shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
    q12013: 4125 MT shipped @ 9,45 million $ profit
    q22013: 4125 MT shipped @ 18,57 million $ profit
    q32013: 4125 MT shipped @ 20,63 million $ profit
    q42013: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13million $ profit
    q12014: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13 million $ profit
    q22014: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13 million $ profit
    Total 160,04 million $ ~ 917 million nok
    Float zone, Electronic grade, simens sg, off spec and silane gass sales:
    Total cash flow profit from these volumes has varied between 80-150 million nok in the last quarters. In q1 rec recived 27 million $ (155 mil nok) compensation for a silane gas contract. I expect the cashflow from these products to be around 55,72 million nok (10 million $) giving a total of 27 + 60 = 87 million $ during the next 6 quarters. ( 498 million nok positive cashflow.) In additional there could be a potential cash flow of 16 million $ from a tax settlement (not added in the calculations here) source: http://www.columbiabasinherald.com/politics/article_4297eee8-7d33-11e2-8daa-001a4bcf887a.html?mode=jqm

    Total all cashflow: 385,7 million $ ~ 2209 million nok.

    Capex estimated for period 2013: 66 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 37 mil $. Total: 103 mil $ ~ 590 mil nok.

    Interest rate for period 2013: 60 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 30 mil $. Total: 90 mil $ ~ 515 mil nok.

    Profit before taxes: 192,7 mil $ ~ 1104 mil nok.

    With the general assembly they will have the ability for 10% convertible loans (about 200-300 mil nok) and 10% share issues (about 200-300 mil nok). This should be enough when you realize they have around 1.9 billion nok in cash / cash equivalents and they will get income of 1.1 billion nok. The debt maturing in q2 2014 is around 3.1 billion nok.

    Themes: Solar, REC
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