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EysteinH
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Norwegian. Master degree in psychology. Currently studying law and working part time. Interested in stock Analyst work.
  • Some solar companies that gain from reduced wafer spot prices 3 comments
    May 14, 2011 7:43 AM | about stocks: FSLR, CSIQ, TSL, YGE, HSOL, SPWR, LDK, JASO, JKS, CSUN

    Recently there has been a sharp drop in wafer spot prices of above 6 % according to pvinsights.com market research from 05/11/2011. This will benefit downstream solar companies while upstream companies could have more squeeze on margins in short term.

    An estimate of some solar companies with a high module or cell production capacity and revealing how much wafer production they are producing themselves or buying could be useful for the intelligent advisor. (yes that was a Benjamin Graham reference.) It is assumed it would be beneficiary to buy all wafers from outside producers in the current market trend of sharp drop in wafer prices.

    Some major module&cell producers estimated capacity total for end of 2011

    Company

    Ticker

    Exp. Poly (NYSE:MT)

    Exp. Wafer

    Exp. Module

    Exp. Cell

    First Solar Inc. 

    FSLR

    0

    0,00

    2308,00

    0,00

    Canadian Solar

    CSIQ

    0

    0,00

    2000,00

    1200,000

    Trina Solar Ltd. 

    TSL

    0

    0,00

    1800,00

    0,00

    Yingli Green Energy Holding 

    YGE

    3000,00

    1000,00

    1750,00

    1000,00

    Hanwha Solarone

    HSOL

    0

    800,00

    1500,00

    1300,00

    Jinko Solar

    JKS

    0

    1500,00

    1500,00

    1500,00

    Solarworld AG 

    SRWRF.PK

    0

    1250,00

    1400,00

    800,00

    SunPowerCorp. 

    SPWRA

    0

    0,00

    920,00 + 700?

    920,00 + 700?

    LDK Solar Co.Ltd. 

    LDK

    11000,00

    2900,00

    900,00

    0,00

    Renewable Energy Corp. ASA 

    REC.OL

    17000,00

    1650,00

    750,00

    750,00

    JA Solar Holdings Co.

    JASO

    0

    600,00

    600,00

    2200,00

    ReneSola 

    SOL

    8500,00

    1900,00

    600,00

    240,00

    China Sunergy 

    CSUN

    0,00

    0,00

    455,00

    235,00

    Solar Fabrik AG 

    SFX.DE

    0,00

    0,00

    210,00

    210,00

    Q-Cells AG 

    QCE.DE

    0,00

    0,00

    123,50

    1111,50

    Suntech Power Holdings 

    STP

    0,00

    1200,00

    0,00

    2400,00


    Notes: Rough estimates based on quarterly releases 2011, full year reports 2010 & Company estimates from GCL -POLY . SPWRA has a joint venture of 1400mw but does not disclose what % of the join venture they have. It is assumed 700mw (50%.) As I am an amateur analyst errors might have occurred. In short: Make up your own mind :)

    The top 3 highest module producers seems to be shielded from the recent wafer drop prices as they don't produce any wafers themselves and can buy at lower prices.  It should be noted First solar uses thin film technology and thus do not require wafers. Fir the next quarter we might see better margins from the high module&cell producers.

    You could also argue that the recent wafer drop means the wafer focused solar companies will benefit long term as the drop in price probably already is included in the stock price as this is well known in stock market. With a 6% drop already I would argue we wont see more squeeze on the wafer price for a while, it might instead be the downstream cell and module producers who will feel the next squeeze.

    Disclosure: I currently have stocks in JASO, HSOL, SOL & PWER. 

    Themes: Solar Stocks: FSLR, CSIQ, TSL, YGE, HSOL, SPWR, LDK, JASO, JKS, CSUN
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Comments (3)
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  • EysteinH
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Comments or spotting of errors on my estimates would be more than welcome. Hope this is usefull for someone.
    15 May 2011, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Dydo
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    visit this site, it shows all statistics
    solarpvinvestor.com/wa...

     

    First solar does not use wafers
    15 May 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • EysteinH
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exellent link. Thanks for that. Yes as First solar uses a thin film technology that does not require cutting of ingots into wafers they dont use wafers. I wrote this in the article in a short line but I guess I should have clarified that even more. Thanks for the observation.
    15 May 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
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