Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Walmart) operates retail stores. The Company operates in three business segments: Walmart U.S., International and Sam’s Club. During the fiscal year ended January 31, 2010 (fiscal 2010), The Walmart U.S. segment accounted for 63.8% of its net sales, and operated retail stores in different formats in the United States, as well as Walmart’s online retail operations, walmart.com. The International segment consists of retail operations in 14 countries and Puerto Rico. During fiscal 2010, the segment generated 24.7% of the Company’s net sales. The International segment includes different formats of retail stores and restaurants, including discount stores, supercenters and Sam’s Clubs that operate outside the United States. The Sam’s Club segment consists of membership warehouse clubs in the United States and the segment’s online retail operations, samsclub.com. During fiscal 2010, Sam’s Club accounted for 11.5% of its net sales.
Last Price 52.40
Does WMT make for an intelligent investment or intelligent speculation today?
Starting with a base estimate of annual Free Cash Flow at a value of approximately $14,000,000,000 and the number of shares outstanding at 3,810,000,000 shares; we used an assumed FCF annual growth of 6.5 percent for the first 10 years and assume zero growth from years 11 to 15. Review the Free Cash Flow record here:
The resulting estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $55.58.
Market Price = $52.4
Intrinsic Value = $55.58 (estimated)
Debt/Equity ratio = .58
Price To Value (P/V) ratio = .94 and the estimated bargain = 6. percent.
Before we make a purchase, we must decide ( filter #1 ) if WMT is a high quality business with good economics. Does WMT have ( filter #2 ) enduring competitive advantages, and does WMT have ( filter #3 ) honest and able management.
The current price/earnings ratio = 14.1
It 's current return on capital = 13.71
Using a debt to equity ratio of .58, WMT shows a 5-year average return on equity = 21
Some industries have higher ROE because they require no assets, such as consulting firms. Other industries require large infrastructure builds before they generate a penny of profit, such as oil refiners. Generally, capital-intensive businesses have higher barriers to entry, which limit competition. But, high-ROE firms with small asset bases have lower barriers to entry. Thus, such firms face more business risk because competitors can replicate their success without having to obtain much outside funding.
Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing; only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long-term market value. In the case of a low-return business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor. The wonderful companies sustain a competitive advantage, produce free cash flow, and use debt wisely.
Does WMT make for an intelligent investment or speculation today? Time is said to be the friend of the wonderful company and the enemy of the mediocre one. Before making an investment decision, seek understanding about the company, its products, and its sustainable competitive advantages over competitors. Next, look for able and trustworthy managers who are focused more on value than just growth. Finally ask: Is there a bargain relative to its intrinsic value per share today?
Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misapraised. In terms of Opportunity Cost, is WMT the best place to invest our money today?
TIME FORWARD PROJECTION:
How will WMT compete going forward? Keep in mind that a financial report like this is a reflection of the past and present. It may be used to project a future, but it may not account for factors yet unseen. Therefore, pay attention to competitive and market factors that may affect changes in profitability.
In summary, using a debt to equity ratio of .58, WMT shows a 5-year average return on equity = 21 . Based on a holding and compounding period of 10 years, and a purchase price bargain of 6. percent, and a relative FCF growth of 6.5 percent, then the estimated effective annual yield on this investment may be greater than 7.1 %.
Going forward, are there any tranformational catalysts or condition indicators imaginable on the horizon?
As always, I appreciate hearing your views,
Author of the new book 'Price To Value'
Author of 'The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger'
Disclosure: no positions